A conceptual model of ocean heat uptake under climate change

Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society 27:22 (2014) 8444-8465

Authors:

David Marshall, Laure Zanna

Abstract:

© 2014 American Meteorological Society. Aconceptual model of ocean heat uptake is developed as a multilayer generalization of Gnanadesikan. The roles of Southern Ocean Ekman and eddy transports, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, and diapycnal mixing in controlling ocean stratification and transient heat uptake are investigated under climate change scenarios, including imposed surface warming, increased Southern Ocean wind forcing, with or without eddy compensation, and weakened meridional overturning circulation (MOC) induced by reduced NADW formation. With realistic profiles of diapycnal mixing, ocean heat uptake is dominated by Southern Ocean Ekman transport and its long-term adjustment controlled by the Southern Ocean eddy transport. The time scale of adjustment setting the rate of ocean heat uptake increases with depth. For scenarios with increased Southern Ocean wind forcing or weakened MOC, deepened stratification results in enhanced ocean heat uptake. In each of these experiments, the role of diapycnal mixing in setting ocean stratification and heat uptake is secondary. Conversely, in experiments with enhanced diapycnal mixing as employed in ''upwelling diffusion'' slab models, the contributions of diapycnal mixing and Southern Ocean Ekman transport to the net heat uptake are comparable, but the stratification extends unrealistically to the sea floor. The simple model is applied to interpret the output of an Earth system model, the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2), in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration is increased by 1%yr-1 until quadrupling, where it is found that Southern Ocean Ekman transport is essential to reproduce the magnitude and vertical profile of ocean heat uptake.

The Atlantic overturning circulation: more evidence of variability and links to climate

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society 95:8 (2014) ES163-ES166

Authors:

James A Carton, Stuart A Cunningham, Eleanor Frajka-Williams, Young-Oh Kwon, David Marshall, Rym Msadek

Abstract:

2013 U.S. AMOC–U.K. RAPID INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE MEETING

What: A total of 106 U.S. and international participants, including academic and governmental climate scientists and funding agency managers, met to review current research findings using paleo- and modern observational data, theory, modeling, and predictability/prediction experiments to explore the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on climate, sea level, carbon/biogeochemistry, and ecosystems.

When: 16–19 July 2013

Where: Baltimore, Maryland

Impacts and effects of mesoscale ocean eddies on ocean carbon storage and atmospheric pCO2

Global Biogeochemical Cycles American Geophysical Union (AGU) 28:8 (2014) 877-896

Authors:

DR Munday, HL Johnson, DP Marshall

A Simple Model of the Response of the Atlantic to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society 27:11 (2014) 4052-4069

Authors:

Xiaoming Zhai, Helen L Johnson, David P Marshall

Advection of baroclinic eddies by depth mean flow

Geophysical Research Letters American Geophysical Union (AGU) 41:10 (2014) 3517-3521

Authors:

Andreas Klocker, David P Marshall