Professor Lesley Gray

Abstract:

This study examines the preconditioning of events in which the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex shifts toward Eurasia (EUR events), North America (NA events), and the Atlantic (ATL events) using composite analysis. An increase in blocking days over northern Europe and a decrease in blocking days over the Bering Strait favor the movement of the vortex toward Eurasia, while the opposite changes in blocking days over those regions favor the movement of the vortex toward North America. An increase in blocking days over the eastern North Atlantic and a decrease in blocking days over the Bering Strait are conducive to movement of the stratospheric polar vortex toward the Atlantic. These anomalous precursor blocking patterns are interpreted in terms of the anomalous zonal wave-1 or wave-2 planetary wave fluxes into the stratosphere that are known to influence the vortex position and strength. In addition, the polar vortex shift events are further classified into events with small and large polar vortex deformation, since the two types of events are likely to have a different impact at the surface. A significant difference in the zonal wave-2 heat flux into the lower stratosphere exists prior to the two types of events and this is linked to anomalous blocking patterns. This study further defines three types of tropospheric blocking events in which the spatial patterns of blocking frequency anomalies are similar to the blocking patterns prior to EUR, NA, and ATL events, respectively, and our reanalysis reveals that the polar vortex is indeed more likely to shift toward Eurasia, North America, and the Atlantic in the presence of the above three defined tropospheric blocking events. These shifts of the polar vortex toward Eurasia, North America, and the Atlantic lead to statistically significant negative height anomalies near the tropopause and corresponding surface cooling anomalies over these three regions.

Abstract:

The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments and analysis. In the equatorial stratosphere, the QBO is the most conspicuous mode of variability. Five coordinated experiments have therefore been designed to (i) evaluate and compare the verisimilitude of modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii) identify robustness (or alternatively the spread and uncertainty) in the simulated QBO response to commonly imposed changes in model climate forcings (e.g. a doubling of CO2 amounts), and (iii) examine model dependence of QBO predictability. This paper documents these experiments and the recommended output diagnostics. The rationale behind the experimental design and choice of diagnostics is presented. To facilitate scientific interpretation of the results in other planned QBOi studies, consistent descriptions of the models performing each experiment set are given, with those aspects particularly relevant for simulating the QBO tabulated for easy comparison.

Abstract:

Recent studies have presented conflicting results regarding the 11-year solar cycle (SC) influences on winter climate over the North Atlantic/European region. Analyses of only the most recent decades suggest a synchronized North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response pattern to the SC. Analyses of long-term climate data sets dating back to the late 19th century, however, suggest a mslp response that lags the SC by 2-4 years in the southern node of the NAO (i.e. Azores region). To understand the conflicting nature and cause of these time dependencies in the SC surface response, the present study employs a lead/lag multi-linear regression technique with a sliding window of 44-years over the period 1751-2016. Results confirm previous analyses, in which the average response for the whole time period features a statistically significant 2-4-year lagged mslp response centered over the Azores region. Overall, the lagged nature of Azores mslp response is generally consistent in time, with stronger and statistically significant SC signals tend to appear in the periods when the SC forcing amplitudes are relatively larger. Individual month analysis indicates the consistent lagged response in December-January-February average arises primarily from early winter months (i.e. December and January), which is associated with ocean feedback processes that involve reinforcement by anomalies from the previous winter. Additional analysis suggests that the synchronous NAO-like response in recent decades arises primarily from the late winter month (February), possibly reflecting a result of strong internal noise.