David Marshall

Abstract:

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The reduced sensitivity of mean Southern Ocean zonal transport with respect to surface wind stress magnitude changes, known as eddy saturation, is studied in an idealized analytical model. The model is based on the assumption of a balance between surface wind stress forcing and bottom dissipation in the planetary geostrophic limit, coupled to the GEOMETRIC form of the Gent–McWilliams eddy parameterization. The assumption of a linear stratification, together with an equation for the parameterized domain integrated total eddy energy, enables the formulation of a two component dynamical system, which reduces to the non‐linear oscillator of Ambaum and Novak (2014, <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2352">https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2352</jats:ext-link>) in a Hamiltonian limit. The model suggests an intrinsic oscillatory time scale for the Southern Ocean, associated with a combination of mean shear erosion by eddies and eddy energy generation by the mean shear. For Southern Ocean parameters the model suggests that perturbing the system via stochastic wind forcing may lead to relatively large excursions in eddy energy.</jats:p>

Abstract:

The mesoscale spectrum describes the distribution of kinetic energy in the Earth's atmosphere between length scales of 10 and 400 km. Since the first observations, the origins of this spectrum have been controversial. At synoptic scales, the spectrum follows a −3 spectral slope, consistent with two-dimensional turbulence theory, but a shallower −5/3 slope was observed at the shorter mesoscales. The cause of the shallower slope remains obscure, illustrating our lack of understanding. Through a novel coarse-graining methodology, we are able to present a spatio-temporal climatology of the spectral slope. We find convection and orography have a shallowing effect and can quantify this using “conditioned spectra.” These are typical spectra for a meteorological condition, obtained by aggregating spectra where the condition holds. This allows the investigation of new relationships, such as that between energy flux and spectral slope. Potential future applications of our methodology include predictability research and model validation.

Abstract:

A large part of the variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and thus uncertainty in its estimates on interannual timescales comes from atmospheric synoptic eddies and mesoscale processes. In this study, a suite of experiments with a 1/12° regional configuration of the MITgcm is performed where low pass filtering is applied to surface wind forcing to investigate the impact of subsynoptic (< 2 days) and synoptic (2-10 days) atmospheric processes on the ocean circulation. Changes in the wind magnitude and hence the wind energy input in the region have a significant effect on the strength of the overturning; once this is accounted for, the magnitude of the overturning in all sensitivity experiments is very similar to that of the control run. Synoptic and subsynoptic variability in atmospheric winds reduce the surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea, resulting in anomalous advection of warm and salty waters into the Irminger Sea and lower upper ocean densities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Other effects of high-frequency variability in surface winds on the AMOC are associated with changes in Ekman convergence in the midlatitudes. Synoptic and subsynoptic winds also impact the strength of the boundary currents and density structure in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the Labrador Sea, the overturning strength is more sensitive to the changes in density structure, whereas in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic, the role of density is comparable to that of the strength of the East Greenland Current.

Abstract:

We explore historical variability in the volume of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) using ECCO, an ocean state estimate configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). The model’s adjoint, a linearization of the MITgcm, is set up to output the lagged sensitivity of the watermass volume to surface boundary conditions. This allows us to reconstruct the evolution of LSW volume over recent decades using historical surface wind stress, heat, and freshwater fluxes. Each of these boundary conditions contributes significantly to the LSW variability that we recover, but these impacts are associated with different geographical fingerprints and arise over a range of time lags. We show that the volume of LSW accumulated in the Labrador Sea exhibits a delayed response to surface wind stress and buoyancy forcing outside the convective interior of the Labrador Sea, at key locations in the North Atlantic Ocean. In particular, winds and surface density anomalies affect the North Atlantic Current’s (NAC) transport of warm and saline subtropical water masses that are precursors for the formation of LSW. This propensity for a delayed response of LSW to remote forcing allows us to predict a substantial fraction of LSW variability at least a year into the future. Our analysis also enables us to attribute LSW variability to different boundary conditions and to gain insight into the major mechanisms that drive volume anomalies in this deep watermass. We point out the important role of buoyancy loss and preconditioning along the NAC pathway, in the Iceland Basin, the Irminger Sea, and the Nordic Seas, processes which facilitate the formation of LSW both in the Irminger and in the Labrador Sea.