David Marshall

Abstract:

The circulation of the subtropical gyres can be decomposed into a horizontal recirculation along contours of constant Bernoulli potential and an overturning circulation across these contours. While the geometry and topology of Bernoulli contours is more complicated in the subtropical gyres than in the Southern Ocean, these subtropical overturning circulations are very much analogous to the overturning cell found in the Southern Ocean. This analogy is formalised through an exact integral constraint, including the rectified effects of transient eddies. The constraint can be interpreted either in terms of vertical fluxes of potential vorticity, or equivalently as an integral buoyancy budget for an imaginary fluid parcel recirculating around a closed Bernoulli contour. Under conditions of vanishing buoyancy and mechanical forcing, the constraint reduces to a generalised nonacceleration condition, under which the Eulerian-mean and eddy-induced overturning circulations exactly compensate. The terms in the integral constraint are diagnosed in an eddypermitting ocean model in both the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the Southern Ocean. The extent to which the Eulerian-mean and eddy-induced overturning circulations compensate is discussed in each case.

Abstract:

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief rewiew of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.