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Tim Palmer

Emeritus

Sub department

  • Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics

Research groups

  • Predictability of weather and climate
Tim.Palmer@physics.ox.ac.uk
Telephone: 01865 (2)72897
Robert Hooke Building, room S43
  • About
  • Publications

On the use of programmable hardware and reduced numerical precision in earth-system modeling

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems American Geophysical Union 7:3 (2015) 1393-1408

Authors:

Peter D Düben, Francis P Russell, Xinyu Niu, Wayne Luk, Tim N Palmer

Abstract:

Programmable hardware, in particular Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), promises a significant increase in computational performance for simulations in geophysical fluid dynamics compared with CPUs of similar power consumption. FPGAs allow adjusting the representation of floating-point numbers to specific application needs. We analyze the performance-precision trade-off on FPGA hardware for the two-scale Lorenz '95 model. We scale the size of this toy model to that of a high-performance computing application in order to make meaningful performance tests. We identify the minimal level of precision at which changes in model results are not significant compared with a maximal precision version of the model and find that this level is very similar for cases where the model is integrated for very short or long intervals. It is therefore a useful approach to investigate model errors due to rounding errors for very short simulations (e.g., 50 time steps) to obtain a range for the level of precision that can be used in expensive long-term simulations. We also show that an approach to reduce precision with increasing forecast time, when model errors are already accumulated, is very promising. We show that a speed-up of 1.9 times is possible in comparison to FPGA simulations in single precision if precision is reduced with no strong change in model error. The single-precision FPGA setup shows a speed-up of 2.8 times in comparison to our model implementation on two 6-core CPUs for large model setups.
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Bell's conspiracy, Schrödinger's black cat and global invariant sets.

Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 373:2047 (2015) 20140246

Abstract:

A locally causal hidden-variable theory of quantum physics need not be constrained by the Bell inequalities if this theory also partially violates the measurement independence condition. However, such violation can appear unphysical, implying implausible conspiratorial correlations between the hidden variables of particles being measured and earlier determinants of instrumental settings. A novel physically plausible explanation for such correlations is proposed, based on the hypothesis that states of physical reality lie precisely on a non-computational measure-zero dynamically invariant set in the state space of the universe: the Cosmological Invariant Set Postulate. To illustrate the relevance of the concept of a global invariant set, a simple analogy is considered where a massive object is propelled into a black hole depending on the decay of a radioactive atom. It is claimed that a locally causal hidden-variable theory constrained by the Cosmological Invariant Set Postulate can violate the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality without being conspiratorial, superdeterministic, fine-tuned or retrocausal, and the theory readily accommodates the classical compatibilist notion of (experimenter) free will.
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New geometric concepts in the foundations of physics.

Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 373:2047 (2015) 20140250

Authors:

Andreas Döring, Tim Palmer
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Invariant Set Theory: Violating Measurement Independence without Fine Tuning, Conspiracy, Constraints on Free Will or Retrocausality

ArXiv 1507.02117 (2015)
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Impact of Initial Conditions versus External Forcing in Decadal Climate Predictions: A Sensitivity Experiment*

Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society 28:11 (2015) 4454-4470

Authors:

Susanna Corti, Tim Palmer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Antje Weisheimer, Sybren Drijfhout, Nick Dunstone, Wilco Hazeleger, Jürgen Kröger, Holger Pohlmann, Doug Smith, Jin-Song von Storch, Bert Wouters
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