Tim Palmer

Abstract:

The combined use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts high-resolution, at T213 spectral triangular truncation and with 31 vertical levels (T213L31, operational model and ensemble prediction system (EPS), during cases of intense Mediterranean storms, is studied. In particular, it is discussed how EPS products can be used to provide a measure of confidence in the high-resolution precipitation forecast. Three case studies (two extreme events plus one false alarm case) are analyzed. For the first two cases, the EPS probability values for precipitation occurrence supported the medium-range T213L31 prediction, which proved to be successful. By contrast, for the third case, the high-resolution forecast suggested heavy rainfall over northern Italy but was not supported by the EPS. The T213L31 prediction for this case was poor. EPS forecasts of extreme weather events are necessarily compromised by the moderate resolution of the T63L19 model (a version of the operational high-resolution T213L31 model, at T63 spectral triangular truncation and with 19 levels) used to generate the ensembles. In future studies, ensembles will be made using at least T106L31 resolution combined with an increase in ensemble size.

Abstract:

The linear structures that produce the most in situ energy growth in the lower stratosphere for realistic wintertime flows are investigated using T21 and T42 calculations with the ECMWF 19-level forecast model. Significant growth is found for relatively large scale structures that grow by propagating from the outer edges of the vortex into the strong jet features of the lower-stratospheric flow. The growth is greater when the polar vortex is more asymmetric and contains localized jet structures. If the linear structures are properly phased, they can induce strong nonlinear interactions with the polar vortex, both for Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere flow conditions, even when the initial amplitudes are small. Large extensions from the main polar vortex that are peeled off during wave-breaking events give rise to a separate class of rapidly growing disturbances that may hasten the mixing of these vortex extensions.