Philip Stier

Abstract:

<p>Sahel rainfall experienced significant multidecadal variability over the twentieth century. Previous work have proposed several drivers to explain the severe drought and the subsequent recovery of Sahel rainfall in the past century, including anthropogenic aerosols, GHGs, and internal variabilities. However, the attribution remained ambiguous. Sahel summertime monsoon has close teleconnections with North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) variability, which has been proven to be affected by aerosols. Therefore, changes in regional aerosols emission can potentially drive multidecadal Sahel rainfall variability.</p><p>Here we use ensembles of state-of-the-art global climate models (the CESM-large ensemble and CMIP6 models) and observational datasets to demonstrate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant impacts on twentieth-century Sahel rainfall multidecadal variability through modifying NASST. Aerosol-induced multidecadal variations of downward solar fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean cause NASST variability during the 20<sup>th</sup> century, altering the strength of the Hadley cell and the ITCZ position, therefore, dynamically linking aerosol effects to Sahel rainfall variability. While the observed linear trend of NASST might still be affected by a mix of various external and internal drivers, our results suggest that NASST variability is most likely caused by aerosol-induced changes in radiative fluxes rather than changes in ocean circulations, and that anthropogenic aerosols can explain most of the detrended Sahel rainfall variability. CMIP6 models further suggest that aerosol-cloud interactions contributed more to the variability than aerosol-radiation interactions. These findings highlight the importance of accurate representation of regional aerosol radiative effects for the simulation of Sahel rainfall variability.</p>

Abstract:

<div> <div> <div> <div> <p>Cloud processes are the leading source of uncertainty in our current global climate models. Therefore understanding cloud formation, lifetime, and decay remains pivotal in order to reduce uncertainty in our global climate models future projections. Exploiting over ten years of satellite observations, the relationships between cloud properties and environmental factors, including aerosols, can be better understood and clustered into environmental regimes. We cluster regimes based on the regional strength of the relationships between the environment and cloud properties revealed using a random forest. Numerous processes, such as stratocumulus to cumulus transitions, may be constrained by the environmental regimes revealed by our analysis. Our results show that depending on the region, aerosol and the environment work to determine the baseline cloud properties. These observation based regimes can be compared to regimes derived from global climate models to understand how well model parameterizations capture the cloud controlling factors.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div>

Abstract:

By interacting with radiation, aerosols perturb the Earth’s energy budget and thus the global precipitation amount. It was previously shown that aerosol-radiation interactions lead to a reduction in the global-mean precipitation amount. We have further demonstrated in aqua-planet simulations that the local response to absorbing aerosols differs between the tropics and the extra-tropics. In this study we incorporate an energy budget perspective to further examine the latitudinal-dependence of the effect of aerosol-radiation interaction on precipitation in idealized global simulations. We demonstrate that the transition between a positive local precipitation response in the tropics and a negative local precipitation response in the extra-tropics occurs at relatively low latitudes (∼10°), indicating a transition between the deep-tropics (in which the Coriolis force is low, hence direct thermally driven circulation, and associated divergence/convergence of energy/moisture, can form as a result of the diabatic-heating) and their surroundings. In addition, we gradually increase the level of complexity of the simulations and demonstrate that, in the case of absorbing aerosols, the effect of land is to counteract some of the response both inside and outside the deep-tropics due to the reduction in surface latent-heat flux that opposes the diabatic-heating. The effect of scattering aerosols is also examined and demonstrates a decrease in precipitation over land in both the tropics and extra-tropics and no effect over the ocean. Finally, we examine these results in a more realistic set-up and demonstrate that, although the physical mechanisms still operate, they are not significant enough to be discerned from the model’s natural-variability.

Abstract:

This study presents results from a model intercomparison project, focusing on the range of responses in deep convective cloud updrafts to varying cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations among seven state-of-the-art cloud-resolving models. Simulations of scattered convective clouds near Houston, Texas, are conducted, after being initialized with both relatively low and high CCN concentrations. Deep convective updrafts are identified, and trends in the updraft intensity and frequency are assessed. The factors contributing to the vertical velocity tendencies are examined to identify the physical processes associated with the CCN-induced updraft changes. The models show several consistent trends. In general, the changes between the High-CCN and Low-CCN simulations in updraft magnitudes throughout the depth of the troposphere are within 15% for all of the models. All models produce stronger (~+5%–15%) mean updrafts from ~4–7 km above ground level (AGL) in the High-CCN simulations, followed by a waning response up to ~8 km AGL in most of the models. Thermal buoyancy was more sensitive than condensate loading to varying CCN concentrations in most of the models and more impactful in the mean updraft responses. However, there are also differences between the models. The change in the amount of deep convective updrafts varies significantly. Furthermore, approximately half the models demonstrate neutral-to-weaker (~−5% to 0%) updrafts above ~8 km AGL, while the other models show stronger (~+10%) updrafts in the High-CCN simulations. The combination of the CCN-induced impacts on the buoyancy and vertical perturbation pressure gradient terms better explains these middle- and upper-tropospheric updraft trends than the buoyancy terms alone.

Abstract:

Pockets of open cells sometimes form within closed‐cell stratocumulus cloud decks but little is known about their statistical properties or prevalence. A convolutional neural network was used to detect occurrences of pockets of open cells (POCs). Trained on a small hand‐logged dataset and applied to 13 years of satellite imagery the neural network is able to classify 8,491 POCs. This extensive database allows the first robust analysis of the spatial and temporal prevalence of these phenomena, as well as a detailed analysis of their micro‐physical properties. We find a large (30%) increase in cloud effective radius inside POCs as compared to their surroundings and similarly large (20%) decrease in cloud fraction. This also allows their global radiative effect to be determined. Using simple radiative approximations we find that the instantaneous global annual mean top‐of‐atmosphere perturbation by all POCs is only 0.01 W/m2.