Climate dynamics

Abstract:

Radiative-transfer (RT) is a fundamental part of modelling exoplanet atmospheres with general circulation models (GCMs). An accurate RT scheme is required for estimates of the atmospheric energy transport and for gaining physical insight from model spectra. We implement three RT schemes for Exo-FMS: semigrey, non-grey ‘picket fence’, and real gas with correlated-k. We benchmark the Exo-FMS GCM, using these RT schemes to hot Jupiter simulation results from the literature. We perform a HD 209458b-like simulation with the three schemes and compare their results. These simulations are then post-processed to compare their observable differences. The semigrey scheme results show qualitative agreement with previous studies in line with variations seen between GCM models. The real gas model reproduces well the temperature and dynamical structures from other studies. After post-processing our non-grey picket fence scheme compares very favourably with the real gas model, producing similar transmission spectra, emission spectra, and phase curve behaviours. Exo-FMS is able to reliably reproduce the essential features of contemporary GCM models in the hot gas giant regime. Our results suggest the picket fence approach offers a simple way to improve upon RT realism beyond semigrey schemes.

Abstract:

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently, it is possible that in the future, the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

Abstract:

The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific‐sector subtropical jet.