Climate dynamics

Abstract:

Context. Growing evidence has indicated that the global composition distribution plays an indisputable role in interpreting observational data. Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) with a reliable treatment of chemistry and clouds are particularly crucial in preparing for upcoming observations. In attempts to achieve 3D chemistry-climate modeling, the challenge mainly lies in the expensive computing power required for treating a large number of chemical species and reactions.
Aims. Motivated by the need for a robust and computationally efficient chemical scheme, we devise a mini-chemical network with a minimal number of species and reactions for H2-dominated atmospheres.
Methods. We apply a novel technique to simplify the chemical network from a full kinetics model, VULCAN, by replacing a large number of intermediate reactions with net reactions. The number of chemical species is cut down from 67 to 12, with the major species of thermal and observational importance retained, including H2O, CH4, CO, CO2, C2H2, NH3, and HCN. The size of the total reactions is also greatly reduced, from ~800 to 20. We validated the mini-chemical scheme by verifying the temporal evolution and benchmarking the predicted compositions in four exoplanet atmospheres (GJ 1214b, GJ 436b, HD 189733b, and HD 209458b) against the full kinetics of VULCAN.
Results. The mini-network reproduces the chemical timescales and composition distributions of the full kinetics well within an order of magnitude for the major species in the pressure range of 1 bar–0.1 mbar across various metallicities and carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratios.
Conclusions. We have developed and validated a mini-chemical scheme using net reactions to significantly simplify a large chemical network. The small scale of the mini-chemical scheme permits simple use and fast computation, which is optimal for implementation in a 3D GCM or a retrieval framework. We focus on the thermochemical kinetics of net reactions in this paper and address photochemistry in a follow-up paper.

Abstract:

In the tropical stratosphere, deep layers of eastward and westward winds encircle the globe and descend regularly from the upper stratosphere to the tropical tropopause. With a complete cycle typically lasting almost 2.5 years, this quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is arguably the most predictable mode of atmospheric variability that is not linked to the changing seasons. The QBO affects climate phenomena outside the tropical stratosphere, including ozone transport, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and its high predictability could enable better forecasts of these phenomena if models can accurately represent the coupling processes. Climate and forecasting models are increasingly able to simulate stratospheric oscillations resembling the QBO, but exhibit common systematic errors such as weak amplitude in the lowermost tropical stratosphere. Uncertainties about the waves that force the oscillation, particularly the momentum fluxes from small-scale gravity waves excited by deep convection, make its simulation challenging. Improved representation of the processes governing the QBO is expected to lead to better forecasts of the oscillation and its impacts, increased understanding of unusual events such as the two QBO disruptions observed since 2016, and more reliable future projections of QBO behaviour under climate change.

Abstract:

The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on tropical climate is demonstrated using 500-year pre-industrial control simulations from the Met Office Hadley Centre model. Robust precipitation responses to the phase of the QBO are diagnosed in the model, which show zonally asymmetric patterns that resemble the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts. These patterns are found because the frequency of ENSO events for each QBO phase is significantly different in these simulations, with more El Niño events found under the westerly phase of the QBO (QBOW) and more La Niña events for the easterly phase (QBOE). The QBO–ENSO relationship is non-stationary and subject to decadal variability in both models and observations. In addition, regression analysis shows that there is a QBO signal in precipitation that is independent of ENSO. No evidence is found to suggest that these QBO–ENSO relationships are caused by ENSO modulating the QBO in the simulations. A relationship between the QBO and a dipole of precipitation in the Indian Ocean is also found in models and observations in boreal fall, characterised by a wetter western Indian Ocean and drier conditions in the eastern part for QBOW and the opposite under QBOE conditions. The Walker circulation is significantly weaker during QBOW compared to QBOE, which could explain the observed and simulated zonally asymmetric precipitation responses at equatorial latitudes, as well as the more frequent El Niño events during QBOW. Further work, including targeted model experiments, is required to better understand the mechanisms causing these relationships between the QBO and tropical convection.

Abstract:

Lava planets have non-global, condensible atmospheres similar to icy bodies within the Solar system. Because they depend on interior dynamics, studying the atmospheres of lava planets can lead to understanding unique geological processes driven by their extreme environment. Models of lava planet atmospheres have thus far focused on either radiative transfer or hydrodynamics. In this study, we couple the two processes by introducing ultraviolet (UV) and infrared (IR) radiation to a turbulent boundary layer model. We also test the effect of different vertical temperature profiles on atmospheric dynamics. Results from the model show that UV radiation affects the atmosphere much more than IR. UV heating and cooling work together to produce a horizontally isothermal atmosphere away from the substellar point regardless of the vertical temperature profile. We also find that stronger temperature inversions induce stronger winds and hence cool the atmosphere. Our simulated transmission spectra of the bound atmosphere show a strong SiO feature in the UV that would be challenging to observe in the planet’s transit spectrum due to the precision required. Our simulated emission spectra are more promising, with significant SiO spectral features at 4.5 and 9 μm that can be observed with the James Webb Space Telescope. Different vertical temperature profiles produce discernible dayside emission spectra, but not in the way one would expect.

Abstract:

Observations show that the seasonal cycle of precipitation in parts of southern Mexico and Central America exhibits a bimodal signal, known as the Midsummer drought (MSD), but there is no consensus on which processes are most relevant for the two-peak structure of the rainy season. This paper evaluates three hypotheses that could explain the MSD: the SST cloud-radiative feedback, the solar declination angle and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) moisture transport hypotheses. Model experiments produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) for CMIP6 as well as ERA5 reanalysis data are used to critically assess the predictions of each hypothesis. The simulations capture the double peak signal of precipitation well and reasonably simulate the spatial and temporal variations of the MSD and other relevant climate features such as the CLLJ. Evidence from our analysis suggests that the Eastern Pacific SSTs do not increase in late summer in ERA5 data and only slightly increase in the simulations. More importantly, the Eastern Pacific SST variability in ERA5 and in the model experiments cannot explain the differences in the seasonality of precipitation. The net shortwave radiation at the surface shows a two-peak seasonal cycle; however, this behaviour appears to result from a strong anti-correlation of the incoming shortwave and convective activity due to cloud radiative-effects. There was no evidence found by this study of a causal link in which absorption of shortwave energy forces precipitation variations, as suggested by the solar declination angle hypothesis. The moisture convergence, CLLJ and the precipitable water vapor variations best explain the characteristics of the observed and simulated MSD, particularly for the onset of the MSD. The diagnosed variations of moisture convergence, which are synchronous with the timing of the MSD, point to a dynamic mechanism in which the low-level inflow from the Caribbean is more important for the MSD than other radiative mechanisms.