Climate dynamics

Abstract:

What: Approximately 40 participants – with expertise spanning energy, computer science, weather and climate research -– joined a week-long Energy-Climate data “hackathon” in June 2021. It was hosted by the Universities of Oxford and Reading in partnership with the UK Met Office as part of a series of themed hackathons supported by the Met Office and held in the run-up to the UN COP26 conference. Six projects were initiated and developed by teams over the course of the week, supported by access to state-of-the-art computational resources on the UK’s CEDA-JASMIN service, and stimulated by keynote speakers from industry and academia. The hackathon concluded with teams presenting their outputs to a panel of invited experts. Several teams plan to build on their hackathon success in publications, ongoing collaborations and research funding proposals. When: 18th May (half-day “scoping” event) & 21st-25th June 2021 (main hackathon) Where: Online via Zoom and Gather.Town, supported by Slack communication channels Affiliations: Initiated by: University of Oxford Dr Sarah Sparrow, Professor David Wallom, Professor Tim Woollings, & University of Reading Professor David Brayshaw, Dr Hannah Bloomfield, In partnership with the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service, and with support from the UK’s CEDA-JASMIN service and Gurobi optimization software.

Abstract:

The East Asian summer jet (EASJ) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system and its variability is correlated with precipitation and surface temperature variations over this region. Whilst many studies have considered the interannual variability of the EASJ, less is known about variations on a decadal time-scale. This study investigates the relationship between decadal EASJ variability and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and thus the potential predictability that SSTs may provide. Given the relatively short observational record, we make use of the long pre-industrial control simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in addition to a large ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments, forced with random SST patterns. We then create an SST-based reconstruction of the dominant modes of EASJ variability in the CMIP6 models, finding a median EASJ–reconstruction correlation for the dominant mode of 0.43. Much of the skill in the reconstruction arises from variations in Pacific SSTs, however the tropical Atlantic also makes a significant contribution. These findings suggest the potential for multi-year predictions of the EASJ, provided that skilful SST forecasts are available.

Abstract:

Condensable species are crucial to shaping planetary climate. A wide range of planetary climate systems involve understanding nondilute condensable substances and their influence on climate dynamics. There has been progress on large-scale dynamical effects and on 1D convection parameterization, but resolved 3D moist convection remains unexplored in nondilute conditions, though it can have a profound impact on temperature/humidity profiles and cloud structure. In this work, we tackle this problem for pure-steam atmospheres using three-dimensional, high-resolution numerical simulations of convection in postrunaway atmospheres. We show that the atmosphere is composed of two characteristic regions, an upper condensing region dominated by gravity waves and a lower noncondensing region characterized by convective overturning cells. Velocities in the condensing region are much smaller than those in the lower, noncondensing region, and the horizontal temperature variation is small. Condensation in the thermal photosphere is largely driven by radiative cooling and tends to be statistically homogeneous. Some condensation also happens deeper, near the boundary of the condensing region, due to triggering by gravity waves and convective penetrations and exhibits random patchiness. This qualitative structure is insensitive to varying model parameters, but quantitative details may differ. Our results confirm theoretical expectations that atmospheres close to the pure-steam limit do not have organized deep convective plumes in the condensing region. The generalized convective parameterization scheme discussed in Ding & Pierrehumbert is appropriate for handling the basic structure of atmospheres near the pure-steam limit but cannot capture gravity waves and their mixing which appear in 3D convection-resolving models.