Scalable Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Causal-Effect Estimates of Continuous-Valued Interventions

(2022)

Authors:

Andrew Jesson, Alyson Douglas, Peter Manshausen, Maëlys Solal, Nicolai Meinshausen, Philip Stier, Yarin Gal, Uri Shalit

Scientific data from precipitation driver response model intercomparison project

Scientific Data Springer Nature 9:1 (2022) 123

Authors:

Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn Samset, Piers M Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Marit Sandstad, Christian W Mohr, Jana Sillmann, Camilla W Stjern, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Trond Iversen, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Ryan Kramer, Longbo Liu, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Dirk Olivié, Johannes Quaas, Thomas B Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Chris Smith, Philip Stier, Tao Tang, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris

Boundary conditions representation can determine simulated aerosol effects on convective cloud fields

Communications Earth and Environment Springer Nature 3:1 (2022) 71

Authors:

Guy Dagan, Philip Stier, George Spill, Ross Herbert, Max Heikenfeld, Susan C van den Heever, Peter J Marinescu

Abstract:

Anthropogenic aerosols effect on clouds remains a persistent source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. The evolution of the environmental conditions controlling cloud properties is affected by the clouds themselves. Hence, aerosol-driven modifications of cloud properties can affect the evolution of the environmental thermodynamic conditions, which in turn could feed back to the cloud development. Here, by comparing many different cloud resolving simulations conducted with different models and under different environmental condition, we show that this feedback loop is strongly affected by the representation of the boundary conditions in the model. Specifically, we show that the representation of boundary conditions strongly impacts the magnitude of the simulated response of the environment to aerosol perturbations, both in shallow and deep convective clouds. Our results raise doubts about the significance of previous conclusions of aerosol-cloud feedbacks made based on simulations with idealised boundary conditions.

Defining regime specific cloud sensitivities using the learnings from machine learning

Copernicus Publications (2022)

Authors:

Alyson Douglas, Philip Stier

Insights from ACRUISE (Atmospheric Composition and Radiative forcing changes due to UN International Ship Emissions regulations) from aircraft, modelling, and satellite perspectives

Copernicus Publications (2022)

Authors:

Mingxi Yang, Thomas Bell, Keith Bower, Ken Carslaw, Thomas Choularton, Matt Christensen, Hugh Coe, Daniel Grosvenor, James Lee, Duncan Watson-Parris, Philip Stier, Masaru Yoshioka