Climate processes

Abstract:

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, and exacerbates global warming through exerting positive radiative forcing (RF). However, the contribution of BC to ongoing changes in global climate is under debate. Anthropogenic BC emissions, and the resulting distribution of BC concentration, are highly uncertain. In particular, long-range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood. Here we discuss whether recent assessments may have overestimated present-day BC radiative forcing in remote regions. We compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns to simulations by 13 aerosol models participating in the AeroCom Phase II intercomparison. An atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in remote ocean regions, in line with other recent studies. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in AeroCom Phase II median direct BC forcing, from fossil fuel and biofuel burning, over the industrial era. The sensitivity of modelled forcing to BC vertical profile and lifetime highlights an urgent need for further flight campaigns, close to sources and in remote regions, to provide improved quantification of BC effects for use in climate policy.

Abstract:

We use data from simulations performed with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM to test the proposition that shipping emissions do not have a statistically significant effect on water clouds over tropical oceans on climate scales put forward in earlier satellite based work. We analyse a total of four sensitivity experiments, three of which employ global shipping emissions and one simulation which only employs shipping emissions in the mid-Atlantic Ocean. To ensure comparability to earlier results from observations, we sample the model data using a method previously applied to satellite data aimed at separating ‘clean’ from ‘polluted’ oceanic regions based on i) the location of main shipping routes and ii) wind direction at 10 m above sea level. The model simulations run with realistic present-day shipping emissions show changes in the lower tropospheric aerosol population attributable to shipping emissions across major shipping corridors over tropical oceans. However, we find the resulting effect on cloud properties to be non-distinguishable from natural gradients and variability, that is, gradients of cloud properties sampled across major shipping corridors over tropical oceans are very similar among those simulations. Our results therefore compare well to the earlier findings from satellite observations. Substantial changes of the aerosol population and cloud properties only occur when shipping emissions are increased 10-fold. We find that aerosol advection and rapid aerosol removal from the atmosphere play an important role in determining the non-significant response in i) column integrated aerosol properties and ii) cloud microphysical properties in the realistic simulations. Additionally, high variability and infrequent occurrence of simulated low-level clouds over tropical oceans in ECHAM5-HAM limit the development of aerosol indirect effects because i) in-cloud production of sulphate from ship-emitted sulphuric species via aqueous oxidation pathways is very low and ii) a possible observational signal is blurred out by high variability in simulated clouds. Our results highlight i) the importance of adequately accounting for atmospheric background conditions when determining climate forcings from observations and ii) the effectiveness of buffering mechanisms on micro- and macroscopic scales which limit the emergence of such climate forcings.