Atlantic climate variability and predictability: A CLIVAR perspective
Journal of Climate 19:20 (2006) 5100-5121
Abstract:
Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief rewiew of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.Adjoint goal-based error norms for adaptive mesh ocean modelling
Ocean Modelling 15:1-2 (2006) 3-38
Abstract:
Flow in the world's oceans occurs at a wide range of spatial scales, from a fraction of a metre up to many thousands of kilometers. In particular, regions of intense flow are often highly localised, for example, western boundary currents, equatorial jets, overflows and convective plumes. Conventional numerical ocean models generally use static meshes. The use of dynamically-adaptive meshes has many potential advantages but needs to be guided by an error measure reflecting the underlying physics. A method of defining an error measure to guide an adaptive meshing algorithm for unstructured tetrahedral finite elements, utilizing an adjoint or goal-based method, is described here. This method is based upon a functional, encompassing important features of the flow structure. The sensitivity of this functional, with respect to the solution variables, is used as the basis from which an error measure is derived. This error measure acts to predict those areas of the domain where resolution should be changed. A barotropic wind driven gyre problem is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the method. The overall objective of this work is to develop robust error measures for use in an oceanographic context which will ensure areas of fine mesh resolution are used only where and when they are required. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.On the separation of a barotropic western boundary current from a cape
Journal of Physical Oceanography 35:10 (2005) 1726-1743
Abstract:
The problem of western boundary current separation is investigated using a barotropic vorticity model. Specifically, a boundary current flowing poleward along a boundary containing a cape is considered. The meridional gradient of the Coriolis parameter (the β effect), the strength of dissipation, and the geometry of the cape are varied. It is found that 1) all instances of flow separation arc coincident with the presence of a flow deceleration, 2) an increase in the strength of the β effect is able to suppress flow separation, and 3) increasing coastline curvature can overcome the suppressive β effect and induce separation. These results are supported by integrated vorticity budgets, which attribute the acceleration of the boundary current to the β effect and changes in flow curvature. The transition to unsteady final model states is found to have no effect upon the qualitative nature of these conclusions. © 2005 American Meteorological Society.The effects of stratification on flow separation
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 62:7 II (2005) 2618-2625
Abstract:
Separation of stratified flow over a two-dimensional hill is inhibited or facilitated by acceleration or deceleration of the flow just outside the attached boundary layer. In this note, an expression is derived for this acceleration or deceleration in terms of streamline curvature and stratification. The expression is valid for linear as well as nonlinear deformation of the flow. For hills of vanishing aspect ratio a linear theory can be derived and a full regime diagram for separation can be constructed. For hills of finite aspect ratio scaling relationships can be derived that indicate the presence of a critical aspect ratio, proportional to the stratification, above which separation will occur as well as a second critical aspect ratio above which separation will always occur irrespective of stratification. © 2005 American Meteorological Society.Three-dimensional unstructured mesh ocean modelling
Ocean Modelling 10:1-2 SPEC. ISS. (2005) 5-33