The biological carbon pump in CMIP6 models: 21st century trends and uncertainties.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 119:29 (2022) e2204369119

Authors:

Jamie D Wilson, Oliver Andrews, Anna Katavouta, Francisco de Melo Viríssimo, Ros M Death, Markus Adloff, Chelsey A Baker, Benedict Blackledge, Fraser W Goldsworth, Alan T Kennedy-Asser, Qian Liu, Katie R Sieradzan, Emily Vosper, Rui Ying

Abstract:

The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of -0.15 to -1.44 Pg C y-1. However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies.

The Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon

Weather Wiley 77:6 (2022) 218-221

Authors:

Dann M Mitchell, Emma J Stone, Oliver D Andrews, Jonathan L Bamber, Rory J Bingham, Jo Browse, Matthew Henry, David M MacLeod, Joanne M Morten, Christoph A Sauter, Christopher J Smith, James Thomas, Stephen I Thomson, Jamie D Wilson, the Bristol CMIP6 Data Hackathon Participants

Spurious forces can dominate the vorticity budget of ocean gyres on the c‐grid

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems American Geophysical Union 14:5 (2022) e2021MS002884

Authors:

Andrew Styles, Michael J Bell, David P Marshall, David Storkey

Abstract:

Gyres are prominent surface structures in the global ocean circulation that often interact with the sea floor in a complex manner. Diagnostic methods, such as the depth-integrated vorticity budget, are needed to assess exactly how such model circulations interact with the bathymetry. Terms in the vorticity budget can be integrated over the area enclosed by streamlines to identify forces that spin gyres up and down. In this article we diagnose the depth-integrated vorticity budgets of both idealized gyres and the Weddell Gyre in a realistic global model. It is shown that spurious forces play a significant role in the dynamics of all gyres presented and that they are a direct consequence of the Arakawa C-grid discretization and the z-coordinate representation of the sea floor. The spurious forces include a numerical beta effect and interactions with the sea floor which originate from the discrete Coriolis force when calculated with the following schemes: the energy conserving scheme; the enstrophy conserving scheme; and the energy and enstrophy conserving scheme. Previous studies have shown that bottom pressure torques provide the main interaction between the depth-integrated flow and the sea floor. Bottom pressure torques are significant, but spurious interactions with bottom topography are similar in size. Possible methods for reducing the identified spurious topographic forces are discussed. Spurious topographic forces can be alleviated by using either a B-grid in the horizontal plane or a terrain-following vertical coordinate.

Acute sensitivity of global ocean circulation and heat content to eddy energy dissipation time‐scale

Geophysical Research Letters American Geophysical Union (AGU) (2022)

Authors:

J MAK, DP MARSHALL, G Madec, JR Maddison

Why mean potential vorticity cannot be materially conserved in the eddying Southern Ocean

Journal of Physical Oceanography American Meteorological Society (2022)

Authors:

Geoffrey J Stanley, David P Marshall

Abstract:

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Downstream of Drake Passage, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) veers abruptly northward along the continental slope of South America. This spins down the ACC, akin to the western boundary currents of ocean gyres. During this northward excursion, the mean potential vorticity (PV) increases dramatically (decreases in magnitude) by up to a factor of two along mean geostrophic streamlines on mid-depth buoyancy surfaces. This increase is driven by drag near the continental slope, or by breaking eddies further offshore, and is balanced by a remarkably steady, eddy-driven decrease of mean PV along these northern circumpolar streamlines in the open ocean. We show how two related eddy processes that are fundamental to ACC dynamics — poleward buoyancy fluxes and downward fluxes of eastward momentum — are also concomitant with materially forcing PV to increase on the northern flank of a jet at mid-depth, and decrease on the southern flank. For eddies to drive the required mean PV decrease along northern streamlines, the ACC merges with the subtropical gyres to the north, so these streamlines inhabit the southern flanks of the combined ACC-gyre jets. We support these ideas by analyzing the time-mean PV and its budget along time-mean geostrophic streamlines in the Southern Ocean State Estimate. Our averaging formalism is Eulerian, to match the model’s numerics. The Thickness Weighted Average is preferable, but its PV budget cannot be balanced using Eulerian 5-day averaged diagnostics, primarily because the z-level buoyancy and continuity equations’ delicate balances are destroyed upon transformation into the buoyancy-coordinate thickness equation.</jats:p>