Planetary Climate Dynamics

Abstract:

© 2020 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved. <p>Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities are well known as the mechanisms responsible for the production of the dominant energy-containing eddies in the atmospheres of Earth and several other planets, as well as Earth's oceans. Here we consider insights provided by both linear and nonlinear instability theories into the conditions under which such instabilities may occur, with reference to forced and dissipative flows obtainable in the laboratory, in simplified numerical atmospheric circulation models and in the planets of our solar system. The equilibration of such instabilities is also of great importance in understanding the structure and energetics of the observable circulation of atmospheres and oceans. Various ideas have been proposed concerning the ways in which baroclinic and barotropic instabilities grow to a large amplitude and saturate whilst also modifying their background flow and environment. This remains an area that continues to challenge theoreticians and observers, though some progress has been made. The notion that such instabilities may act under some conditions to adjust the background flow towards a critical state is explored here in the context of both laboratory systems and planetary atmospheres. Evidence for such adjustment processes is found relating to baroclinic instabilities under a range of conditions where the efficiency of eddy and zonal-mean heat transport may mutually compensate in maintaining a nearly invariant thermal structure in the zonal mean. In other systems, barotropic instabilities may efficiently mix potential vorticity to result in a flow configuration that is found to approach a marginally unstable state with respect to Arnol'd's second stability theorem. We discuss the implications of these findings and identify some outstanding open questions.</p>.

Abstract:

Solar radiation and geological processes over the first few million years of Earth’s history, followed soon thereafter by the origin of life, steered our planet towards an evolutionary trajectory of long-lived habitability that ultimately enabled the emergence of complex life. We review the most important conditions and feedbacks over the first 2 billion years of this trajectory, which perhaps represent the best analogue for other habitable worlds in the galaxy. Crucial aspects included: (1) the redox state and volatile content of Earth’s building blocks, which determined the longevity of the magma ocean and its ability to degas H2O and other greenhouse gases, in particular CO2, allowing the condensation of a water ocean; (2) the chemical properties of the resulting degassed mantle, including oxygen fugacity, which would have not only affected its physical properties and thus its ability to recycle volatiles and nutrients via plate tectonics, but also contributed to the timescale of atmospheric oxygenation; (3) the emergence of life, in particular the origin of autotrophy, biological N2 fixation, and oxygenic photosynthesis, which accelerated sluggish abiotic processes of transferring some volatiles back into the lithosphere; (4) strong stellar UV radiation on the early Earth, which may have eroded significant amounts of atmospheric volatiles, depending on atmospheric CO2/N2 ratios and thus impacted the redox state of the mantle as well as the timing of life’s origin; and (5) evidence of strong photochemical effects on Earth’s sulfur cycle, preserved in the form of mass-independent sulfur isotope fractionation, and potentially linked to fractionation in organic carbon isotopes. The early Earth presents itself as an exoplanet analogue that can be explored through the existing rock record, allowing us to identify atmospheric signatures diagnostic of biological metabolisms that may be detectable on other inhabited planets with next-generation telescopes. We conclude that investigating the development of habitable conditions on terrestrial planets, an inherently complex problem, requires multi-disciplinary collaboration and creative solutions.

Abstract:

We present a series of experimental investigations in which a differentially-heated annulus was used to investigate the effects of topography on rotating, stratified flows. In particular, we investigate blocking effects via azimuthally varying differential-heating and compare them to previous experiments utilising partial mechanical barriers. The thermal topography used consisted of a flat patch of heating elements covering a small azimuthal extent of the base, forming an equivalent of a partial barrier, to study the difference between blocked and unblocked flow. These azimuthally-varying heating experiments produced results with many similarities to our previous experiments with a mechanical barrier, despite the lack of a physical obstacle or formation of bottom-trapped waves. In particular, a unique flow structure was found when the drifting flow and the topography interacted in the form of an “interference” regime at low Taylor number, but forming an erratic “irregular” regime at higher Taylor number. This suggests that blocking may be induced by either or both of a thermal or mechanical inhomogeneity. Evidence of coherent/persistent resonant wave triads was noted in both kinds of experiment, though the component wavenumbers of the wave-triads and their impact on the flow was found to depend on the topography in question.

Abstract:

Supercontinent assembly and breakup can influence the rate and global extent to which insulated and relatively warm subcontinental mantle is mixed globally, potentially introducing lateral oceanic‐continental mantle temperature variations that regulate volcanic and weathering controls on Earth's long‐term carbon cycle for a few hundred million years. We propose that the relatively warm and unchanging climate of the Nuna supercontinental epoch (1.8–1.3 Ga) is characteristic of thorough mantle thermal mixing. By contrast, the extreme cooling‐warming climate variability of the Neoproterozoic Rodinia episode (1–0.63 Ga) and the more modest but similar climate change during the Mesozoic Pangea cycle (0.3–0.05 Ga) are characteristic features of the effects of subcontinental mantle thermal isolation with differing longevity. A tectonically modulated carbon cycle model coupled to a one‐dimensional energy balance climate model predicts the qualitative form of Mesozoic climate evolution expressed in tropical sea‐surface temperature and ice sheet proxy data. Applied to the Neoproterozoic, this supercontinental control can drive Earth into, as well as out of, a continuous or intermittently panglacial climate, consistent with aspects of proxy data for the Cryogenian‐Ediacaran period. The timing and magnitude of this cooling‐warming climate variability depends, however, on the detailed character of mantle thermal mixing, which is incompletely constrained. We show also that the predominant modes of chemical weathering and a tectonically paced abiotic methane production at mid‐ocean ridges can modulate the intensity of this climate change. For the Nuna epoch, the model predicts a relatively warm and ice‐free climate related to mantle dynamics potentially consistent with the intense anorogenic magmatism of this period.

Abstract:

The atmospheric lifetime and radiative impacts of different climate pollutants can both differ markedly, so metrics that equate emissions using a single scaling factor, such as the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100), can be misleading. An alternative approach is to report emissions as 'warming-equivalents' that result in similar warming impacts without requiring a like-for-like weighting per emission. GWP*, an alternative application of GWPs where the CO2-equivalence of short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) emissions is predominantly determined by changes in their emission rate, provides a straightforward means of generating warming-equivalent emissions. In this letter we illustrate the contrasting climate impacts resulting from emissions of methane, a short-lived greenhouse gas, and CO2, and compare GWP100 and GWP* CO2-equivalents for a number of simple emissions scenarios. We demonstrate that GWP* provides a useful indication of warming, while conventional application of GWP100 falls short in many scenarios and particularly when methane emissions are stable or declining, with important implications for how we consider 'zero emission' or 'climate neutral' targets for sectors emitting different compositions of gases. We then illustrate how GWP* can provide an improved means of assessing alternative mitigation strategies. GWP* allows warming-equivalent emissions to be calculated directly from CO2-equivalent emissions reported using GWP100, consistent with the "Paris Rulebook" agreed by the UNFCCC. It provides a direct link between emissions and anticipated warming impacts, supporting stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal and compatible with cumulative emissions budgets.