Diurnal Variability Modulates Episodic Convection in Hothouse Climates Over Ocean and Swamp‐Like Surface Conditions

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems American Geophysical Union (AGU) 18:2 (2026) e2025MS004992

Authors:

Namrah Habib, Guy Dagan, Nathan Steiger

Abstract:

Abstract Hot and moist “hothouse” climates occurred in Earth's past and are expected in Earth's far future climate, driven by increasing solar luminosity. In hothouse climate regimes, precipitation transitions from a quasi‐steady state, as in present‐day tropical convection, to an “episodic deluge” or relaxation‐oscillator (RO) regime where precipitation occurs in intense bursts separated by multi‐day dry spells. Recent studies suggest that the transition to RO convection regimes is radiatively driven. However, the transition from steady state to RO convection has only been studied with radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations with constant insolation, excluding the diurnal cycle. Precipitation and convection are strongly linked to the diurnal cycle in Earth's present climate over both land and ocean. We explore the impact of the diurnal cycle on the transition from steady state to RO convection using two sets of small‐domain RCE simulations with ocean and swamp‐like surface boundary conditions. Our RCE simulations with ocean boundary conditions show convection transitions to an episodic deluge regime at 322 K and the diurnal cycle modulates precipitation to occur during late‐night or near dawn, when convective inhibition is the weakest. Our RCE simulations with swamp‐like boundary conditions, which allow for mean surface temperature variations, show that as RO states emerge, the diurnal cycle modulates precipitation to primarily occur during the late‐afternoon to about dusk; but as the mean SST increases, precipitation occurs during the late‐night to dawn. These results show that the diurnal cycle strongly influences the timing of convection and precipitation patterns in extreme climates.

Exoplanet Atmospheres at High Spectral Resolution

Chapter in Handbook of Exoplanets, Springer Nature (2026) 1-38

Abstract:

The spectrum of an exoplanet reveals the physical, chemical, and biological processes that have shaped its history and govern its future. However, observations of exoplanet spectra are complicated by the overwhelming glare of their host stars. Here, we focus on high-resolution spectroscopy (HRS) (R∼5,000−140,000$$R\,{\sim }\,5{,}000-140{,}000$$), which helps disentangle and isolate the exoplanet’s spectrum. HRS resolves molecular features into a dense forest of individual lines in a pattern that is unique for a given molecule. For close-in planets, the spectral lines undergo large Doppler shifts during the planet’s orbit, while the host star and Earth’s spectral features remain essentially stationary, enabling a velocity separation of the planet. For slower-moving, wide-orbit planets, HRS, aided by high contrast imaging, instead isolates their spectra using their spatial separation (high contrast spectroscopy; HCS). The planet’s spectral lines are compared with HRS model atmospheric spectra, typically using cross-correlation to sum their signals. It is essentially a form of fingerprinting for exoplanet atmospheres and works for both transiting and non-transiting planets. It measures their orbital velocity, true mass, and simultaneously characterizes their atmosphere. The unique sensitivity of HRS to the depth, shape, and position of the planet’s spectral lines allows it to measure atmospheric composition, structure, clouds, and dynamics, including day-to-night winds and equatorial jets, plus its rotation period and even its magnetic field. These are extracted using statistically robust log-likelihood frameworks and match space-based instruments in their precision. This chapter describes the HRS technique in detail and concludes with future prospects with Extremely Large Telescopes to identify biosignatures on nearby rocky worlds and map features in the atmospheres of giant exoplanets.

3D Modeling of Moist Convective Inhibition in Idealized Sub-Neptune Atmospheres

The Astrophysical Journal American Astronomical Society 995:1 (2025) 41

Authors:

Namrah Habib, Raymond T Pierrehumbert

Abstract:

Atmospheric convection behaves differently in hydrogen-rich atmospheres compared to higher mean molecular weight atmospheres due to compositional gradients of tracers. Previous 1D studies predict that when a condensable tracer exceeds a critical mixing ratio in H2-rich atmospheres, convection is inhibited, leading to the formation of radiative layers where the temperature decreases faster with height than in convective profiles. We use 3D convection-resolving simulations to test whether convection is inhibited in H2-rich atmospheres when the tracer mixing ratio exceeds the critical threshold, while including processes neglected in 1D, e.g., turbulent mixing and evaporation. We run two sets of simulations. First, we perform simulations initialized on saturated isothermal states and find that compositional gradients can destabilize isothermal atmospheres. Second, we perform simulations initialized on adiabatic profiles, which show distinct, stable inhibition layers form when the condensable tracer exceeds the critical threshold. Within the inhibition layer, only a small amount of energy is carried by latent heat flux, and turbulent mixing transports a small amount of tracer upward, but both are generally too weak to sustain substantial tracer or heat transport. The thermal profile gradually relaxes to a steep radiative state, but radiative relaxation timescales are long. Our results suggest stable layers driven by condensation-induced convective inhibition form in H2-rich atmospheres, including those of sub-Neptune exoplanets.

DSMC analysis of Astrobotic's Peregrine Mission-1: MON-25 leak and water outgassing

Acta Astronautica 237 (2025) 196-207

Authors:

S Boccelli, OJ Tucker, MJ Poston, P Prem, T Warren, AJ Gawronska, SJ Barber, WM Farrell, BA Cohen

Abstract:

Astrobotic's Peregrine Mission-1 spacecraft experienced a propulsion system anomaly that prevented the lander from reaching the Moon. During the mission, several instruments operated successfully in cis-lunar space. Among them, the Peregrine Ion Trap Mass Spectrometer (PITMS) measured both the presence of outgassing water and nitrogen oxides traceable to the MON-25 oxidizer. We performed Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) studies of the oxidizer leak on Peregrine to characterize the gas diffusion from the leak to the instrument, mediated by inter-species collisions and gas–surface interaction. We conclude that the latter process was prevalent and that diffusion paths through Peregrine are necessary to explain the PITMS detections. Our DSMC study and estimation of Peregrine's outgassing rate suggest that, at the early stage of the mission, the spacecraft released water at a rate comparable to the Space Shuttle and at a much larger rate than typical spacecraft during science operations. This provides useful information for planning future operations of science instruments on commercial missions.

Chasing the storm: investigating the application of high-contrast imaging techniques in producing precise exoplanet light curves

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) 544:4 (2025) 3191-3209

Authors:

Ben J Sutlieff, David S Doelman, Jayne L Birkby, Matthew A Kenworthy, Jordan M Stone, Frans Snik, Steve Ertel, Beth A Biller, Charles E Woodward, Andrew J Skemer, Jarron M Leisenring, Alexander J Bohn, Luke T Parker

Abstract:

ABSTRACT Substellar companions such as exoplanets and brown dwarfs exhibit changes in brightness arising from top-of-atmosphere inhomogeneities, providing insights into their atmospheric structure and dynamics. This variability can be measured in the light curves of high-contrast companions from the ground by combining differential spectrophotometric monitoring techniques with high-contrast imaging. However, ground-based observations are sensitive to the effects of turbulence in Earth’s atmosphere, and while adaptive optics (AO) systems and bespoke data processing techniques help to mitigate these, residual systematics can limit photometric precision. Here, we inject artificial companions to data obtained with an AO system and a vector Apodizing Phase Plate coronagraph to test the level to which telluric and other systematics contaminate such light curves, and thus how well their known variability signals can be recovered. We find that varying companions are distinguishable from non-varying companions, but that variability amplitudes and periods cannot be accurately recovered when observations cover only a small number of periods. Residual systematics remain above the photon noise in the light curves but have not yet reached a noise floor. We also simulate observations to assess how specific systematic sources, such as non-common path aberrations and AO residuals, can impact aperture photometry as a companion moves through pupil-stabilized data. We show that only the lowest order aberrations are likely to affect flux measurements, but that thermal background noise is the dominant source of scatter in raw companion photometry. Predictive control and focal-plane wavefront sensing techniques will help to further reduce systematics in data of this type.