Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

Recent developments in dynamical seasonal forecasting of potential relevance to agricultural management are discussed. These developments emphasize the importance of using a fully probabilistic approach at all stages of the forecasting process, from the dynamical ocean-atmosphere models used to predict climate variability at seasonal and interannual time scales, through the models used to downscale the global output to finer scales, to the end-user forecast models. The final goal is to create an end-to-end multi-scale (both in space and time) integrated prediction system that provides skilful, useful predictions of variables with socio-economic interest. Multi-model ensemble predictions made with the leading European global coupled climate models as part of the DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction) project are used as an example to illustrate the potential of producing useful probabilistic predictions of seasonal climate fluctuations and of applying them to crop yield forecasting. © Inter-Research 2006.

Abstract:

The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.