Predictability of weather and climate

Abstract:

The altitude dependent variability of ozone in the polar stratosphere is regularly observed by balloon-borne ozonesonde observations at Neumayer Station (70°S) in the Antarctic and at Koldewey Station (79°N) in the Arctic. The reasons for observed seasonal and interannual variability and long-term changes are discussed. Differences between the hemispheres are identified and discussed in light of differing dynamical and chemical conditions. Since the mid-1980s, rapid chemical ozone loss has been recorded in the lower Antarctic stratosphere during the spring season. Using coordinated ozone soundings in some Arctic winters, similar chemical ozone loss rates have been detected related to periods of low temperatures. The currently observed cooling trend of the stratosphere, potentially caused by the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may further strengthen chemical ozone removal in the Arctic. However, the role of internal climate oscillations in observed temperature trends is still uncertain. First results of a 10 000 year integration of a low order climate model indicate significant internal climate variability, on decadal time scales, that may alter the effect of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the polar stratosphere.

Abstract:

Two 1000-year numerical experiments based on the IFA RAN global climate model, the first with completely interacting atmosphere and ocean and the second with a fixed climatic mean annual cycle of sea surface temperature, are analyzed. In both cases, a quasi-decadal cyclicity (QDC), but with substantially different amplitude-frequency characteristics, is detected for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter. Significant changes in the QDC regimes from one century to another are observed in the model. A comparison of the numerical results with empirical data and reconstructions reveal a fairly good agreement of the QDC amplitude and periods for winter NAO regimes in the model with completely interacting atmosphere and ocean for individual model subperiods on the order of a century. The model results suggest that interdecadal NAO variations of natural origin can be noticeably strengthened in the climate system without any influence of external, in particular, anthropogenic factors. In the case of a fixed annual cycle of SST, the QDC amplitudes are underestimated several times by the model, and no positive correlation is observed between the amplitudes and periods of the NAO QDC in contrast to the empirical data, reconstructions, and the model with completely interacting atmosphere and ocean.