Diurnal Variability Modulates Episodic Convection in Hothouse Climates Over Ocean and Swamp‐Like Surface Conditions

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems American Geophysical Union (AGU) 18:2 (2026) e2025MS004992

Authors:

Namrah Habib, Guy Dagan, Nathan Steiger

Abstract:

Abstract Hot and moist “hothouse” climates occurred in Earth's past and are expected in Earth's far future climate, driven by increasing solar luminosity. In hothouse climate regimes, precipitation transitions from a quasi‐steady state, as in present‐day tropical convection, to an “episodic deluge” or relaxation‐oscillator (RO) regime where precipitation occurs in intense bursts separated by multi‐day dry spells. Recent studies suggest that the transition to RO convection regimes is radiatively driven. However, the transition from steady state to RO convection has only been studied with radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations with constant insolation, excluding the diurnal cycle. Precipitation and convection are strongly linked to the diurnal cycle in Earth's present climate over both land and ocean. We explore the impact of the diurnal cycle on the transition from steady state to RO convection using two sets of small‐domain RCE simulations with ocean and swamp‐like surface boundary conditions. Our RCE simulations with ocean boundary conditions show convection transitions to an episodic deluge regime at 322 K and the diurnal cycle modulates precipitation to occur during late‐night or near dawn, when convective inhibition is the weakest. Our RCE simulations with swamp‐like boundary conditions, which allow for mean surface temperature variations, show that as RO states emerge, the diurnal cycle modulates precipitation to primarily occur during the late‐afternoon to about dusk; but as the mean SST increases, precipitation occurs during the late‐night to dawn. These results show that the diurnal cycle strongly influences the timing of convection and precipitation patterns in extreme climates.

3D Modeling of Moist Convective Inhibition in Idealized Sub-Neptune Atmospheres

The Astrophysical Journal American Astronomical Society 995:1 (2025) 41

Authors:

Namrah Habib, Raymond T Pierrehumbert

Abstract:

Atmospheric convection behaves differently in hydrogen-rich atmospheres compared to higher mean molecular weight atmospheres due to compositional gradients of tracers. Previous 1D studies predict that when a condensable tracer exceeds a critical mixing ratio in H2-rich atmospheres, convection is inhibited, leading to the formation of radiative layers where the temperature decreases faster with height than in convective profiles. We use 3D convection-resolving simulations to test whether convection is inhibited in H2-rich atmospheres when the tracer mixing ratio exceeds the critical threshold, while including processes neglected in 1D, e.g., turbulent mixing and evaporation. We run two sets of simulations. First, we perform simulations initialized on saturated isothermal states and find that compositional gradients can destabilize isothermal atmospheres. Second, we perform simulations initialized on adiabatic profiles, which show distinct, stable inhibition layers form when the condensable tracer exceeds the critical threshold. Within the inhibition layer, only a small amount of energy is carried by latent heat flux, and turbulent mixing transports a small amount of tracer upward, but both are generally too weak to sustain substantial tracer or heat transport. The thermal profile gradually relaxes to a steep radiative state, but radiative relaxation timescales are long. Our results suggest stable layers driven by condensation-induced convective inhibition form in H2-rich atmospheres, including those of sub-Neptune exoplanets.

DSMC analysis of Astrobotic's Peregrine Mission-1: MON-25 leak and water outgassing

Acta Astronautica 237 (2025) 196-207

Authors:

S Boccelli, OJ Tucker, MJ Poston, P Prem, T Warren, AJ Gawronska, SJ Barber, WM Farrell, BA Cohen

Abstract:

Astrobotic's Peregrine Mission-1 spacecraft experienced a propulsion system anomaly that prevented the lander from reaching the Moon. During the mission, several instruments operated successfully in cis-lunar space. Among them, the Peregrine Ion Trap Mass Spectrometer (PITMS) measured both the presence of outgassing water and nitrogen oxides traceable to the MON-25 oxidizer. We performed Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) studies of the oxidizer leak on Peregrine to characterize the gas diffusion from the leak to the instrument, mediated by inter-species collisions and gas–surface interaction. We conclude that the latter process was prevalent and that diffusion paths through Peregrine are necessary to explain the PITMS detections. Our DSMC study and estimation of Peregrine's outgassing rate suggest that, at the early stage of the mission, the spacecraft released water at a rate comparable to the Space Shuttle and at a much larger rate than typical spacecraft during science operations. This provides useful information for planning future operations of science instruments on commercial missions.

The Lunar Trailblazer Lunar Thermal Mapper Instrument

(2025)

Authors:

Neil E Bowles, Bethany L Ehlmann, Rory Evans, Tristram Warren, Henry Hall Eshbaugh, Greg King, Waqas Mir, Namrah Habib, Katherine A Shirley, Fraser Clarke, Cyril Bourgenot, Chris Howe, Keith Nowicki, Fiona Henderson, Christopher Scott Edwards, Rachel Louise Pillar Klima, Kerri L Donaldson Hanna, Calina Seybold, Andrew Klesh, David Ray Thompson, Elise Furlan, Elena Scire, Judy Adler, Nicholas Elkington, Aria Vitkova, Jon Temple, Simon Woodward

Volcanic gas plumes’ effect on the spectrum of Venus

Icarus 438 (2025)

Authors:

JA Dias, P Machado, S Robert, J Erwin, M Lefèvre, CF Wilson, D Quirino, JC Duarte

Abstract:

Venus is home to thousands of volcanoes, with a wide range of volumes and sizes. Its surface is relatively young, with a temperature of approximately 735 K and an atmosphere of 92 bar. Past and possible ongoing volcanic outgassing is expected to provide a source to the sustenance of this massive atmosphere, dominated by CO2 and SO2. The lower atmosphere can be investigated in the near-infrared transparency windows on the nightside, such as the 2.3μm thermal emission window, which provides a chance of detection of species with volcanic origin, such as water vapor. The Planetary Spectrum Generator was used to simulate the nightside 2.3μm thermal emission window of Venus. We simulated the effect of a volcanic gas plume rising to a ceiling altitude, for species such as H2O, CO, OCS, HF and SO2. The sensitivity of the radiance spectrum at different wavelengths was explored as an attempt to qualitatively access detection for future measurements of both ground-based and space-instrumentation. We conclude from our qualitative analysis that for the H2O, CO and OCS plumes simulated there is potential to achieve a detection in the future, given a minimum required signal-to-noise ratio of 50. For SO2 and HF plumes, a higher signal-to-noise ratio would be needed.