Thermal Modelling of the Flyby of Binary Main Belt Asteroid (152830) Dinkinesh by NASA’s Lucy Mission

Copernicus Publications (2025)

Authors:

Duncan Lyster, Carly Howett, John Spencer, Joshua Emery, Benjamin Byron, Philip Christensen, Victoria Hamilton, The Lucy Team

Abstract:

Introduction: The Lucy mission's first asteroid flyby provided a unique and unexpected opportunity to study a binary asteroid system up close. Originally expected to encounter a single target, Dinkinesh, the discovery of its small, tidally locked moon, Selam, introduced additional opportunity and complexity to the interpreting flyby observations [1]. We present thermal modelling of the binary system, quantifying how the presence of Selam influenced radiance measurements and indicating its possible impact on thermal inertia estimates. Thermal inertia (TI) offers insight into surface properties such as grain size and regolith structure. Determining the TI of Dinkinesh adds to our understanding of small S-type asteroids and enables comparison within a binary, potentially revealing differences driven by tidal effects or surface evolution.Methods: We modelled the flyby geometry and instrument measurements using the new TESBY (Thermal Emissions Spectrometer flyBY) module of TEMPEST (the Thermophysical Equilibrium Model for Planetary Environment Surface Temperatures) [2] to simulate the thermal radiance of both bodies and assess their combined effect on interpretation of data from the Lucy Thermal Emission Spectrometer (L’TES) instrument [3].The Thermal Model: Dinkinesh and its satellite, Selam, were modelled in TEMPEST. A stereo-photogrammetric shape model is available for the primary target – Dinkinesh [4], with ~2 m lateral and ~0.5 m vertical resolution, covering ~60% of the surface. This shape model was downsampled to a dimensionally accurate model with 1266 facets with a resolution of ~35 m. A sphere of representative diameter (230 m [1]) was used for the satellite Selam.Figure 1: TESBY visualization of flyby. Global view of the flyby trajectory (left), and the FOV of the instrument (centre), with corresponding L’LORRI image for comparison [1] taken 0.54 minutes before closest approach (right). Input is the TEMPEST [5] result for the shape model of Dinkinesh, and representative diameter sphere for Selam. Parameters used: solar distance = 2.19 AU, rotation periods = 3.74 hours (Dinkinesh) and 52.7 hours (Selam) [1] thermal inertia (provisional) = 40 J m-2 s-1/2 K-1, geometric albedo = 0.27Flyby geometry: Building on the TEMPEST framework, the TESBY module is given the geometry information for the flyby and the thermal data from TEMPEST. Based on the 7.3 mrad Field-of-View (FOV) of the L’TES instrument [3] TESBY produces simulated radiance measurements by computing a weighted sum of blackbody curves from each visible facet, based on its temperature, projected area, and emission angle. Matching these modelled radiances to the instrument data allows us to fit for the thermal inertia of the asteroid. A complicating factor in this study is that the sensitivity of L’TES is not uniform across its FOV, including this effect in the model is the subject of ongoing work.Figure 2: Preliminary modelled radiance results (blue line) compared to L’TES observation (red) using the same model settings as Fig. 1. Scaled radiances (dotted line) are also provided (see main text for more information).Results: An example of the currently predicted model radiance is given by Figure 2. As it shows, there is a notable offset between the predicted and observed radiances. Accounting for the position of the targets in the L’TES FOV is expected to resolve the observed discrepancy in absolute radiance levels. However, as the scaled model shows, the predicted radiances are able to capture the shape of the L’TES radiance.We find that due to the slower rotation rate of Selam, the maximum surface temperatures on the satellite can be as much as 25 K higher than those on Dinkinesh (Fig. 1), meaning that despite the small size (lobe diameter of only 230 m, compared with 790 m for Dinkinesh [1]), the contribution to measured radiance is significant. This effect is highlighted by investigation of the integrated radiances of the targets throughout the flyby (Fig. 3), where the entry and exit of Selam within the FOV is visible, as well as the dip in integrated radiance while Selam is partially eclipsed by Dinkinesh. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the full system in flyby analysis, informing techniques for similar encounters in the future. This work highlights how the thermal signature of even a small secondary body can significantly impact observations, shaping our understanding of asteroid surface properties and thermal environments.Continued analysis will focus on the use of TEMPEST/TESBY to constrain the thermal inertia of this binary asteroid from L’TES flyby observations.  Figure 3: Variation in integrated wavelength for Dinkinesh (target, blue), Selam (satellite, red) and combined effect (green). Radiances were integrated over the 200–1500 cm⁻¹ spectral range. The results show that despite its small size, Selam makes a significant difference to the spectral radiance, particularly at shorter wavelengths. The dip in combined spectral radiance at observations 3315-3320 is due to Selam being eclipsed by Dinkinesh.The thermal model code is open source and available at: github.com/duncanLyster/TEMPEST/Acknowledgement: This work was made possible by support from the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council.  References: [1] Levison, H.F., Marchi, S., Noll, K.S. et al. A contact binary satellite of the asteroid (152830) Dinkinesh. Nature 629, 1015–1020 (2024).[2] Lyster, D., Howett, C., & Penn, J. (2024). Predicting surface temperatures on airless bodies: An open-source Python tool. EPSC Abstracts, 18, EPSC2024-1121.[3] Christensen, P. R., et al. The Lucy Thermal Emission Spectrometer (L’TES) Instrument, Space Sci. Rev. (2023)[4] Preusker, F. et al. (2024). Shape Model of Asteroid (152830) Dinkinesh from Photogrammetric Analysis of Lucy’s Frame Camera L’LORRI. 55th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, Abstract #1903.[5] Lyster, D., Howett, C., & Penn, J. (2025). TEMPEST: A Modular Thermophysical Model for Airless Bodies with Support for Surface Roughness and Non-Periodic Heating. Submitted to EPSC Abstracts, 2025

Thermal Surface Measurements of Europa using Galileo PPR: Searching for Temperature Anomalies

Copernicus Publications (2025)

Authors:

Sarah Howes, Carly Howett

Abstract:

. IntroductionPerhaps one of the most fascinating ice-covered moons in our solar system is the Galilean satellite Europa. The successful launch of Europa Clipper has motivated the re-evaluation of our current knowledge of the Jovian moon -- specifically thermal measurements of the moon's surface, which may contain information about recent geologic activity. After the discovery of active plumes on Enceladus [1], similar phenomena were searched for on Europa [2]. While evidence of surface alteration -- such as troughs, ridges, chaos terrain, and the lack of prevalent craters -- indicate ongoing activity and a relatively young surface [3], the presence of plumes is still being debated. While no endogenic thermal anomalies have yet been observed on Europa's surface [4], we re-assess the thermal IR data from Galileo Orbiter's photopolarimeter-radiometer instrument (PPR) [5]. We perform a thermal analysis of the surface properties of Europa, including mapping the thermal inertia and albedo similar to what was done by Rathbun et al. [4], with a goal of extending thermal surface mapping beyond the previous 20% surface coverage. We also perform a sensitivity study of PPR in hotspot detection by determining the minimum detectable hotspot temperature across the surface of the moon and compare our results to previous work. 2. Data AnalysisWe use 29 PPR radiometry datasets taken during various orbits ranging from November 1996 to November 1999. Both narrow band and open filters were used, with a total wavelength range of 0.3-110 μm. We divide the surface into 3°x3° longitude/latitude grid cells and determine each cell's temperature at a given local time to produce diurnal temperature curves. To determine the thermal inertia and albedo, we fit a thermophysical model to each cell's diurnal curve using the Thermophysical Body Model Simulation Script (TEMPEST) [6] as our modelling tool. The best-fit diurnal curve is chosen by minimizing the reduced chi-squared of the model fit, while all data with χred2

Update on NASA’s New Horizons Mission: Kuiper Belt Science Results and Future Plans

Copernicus Publications (2025)

Authors:

Kelsi Singer, Alan Stern, Anne Verbiscer, Simon Porter, William Grundy, Susan Bennechi, Marc Buie, Mihaly Horanyi, Alex Doner, Thomas Corbett, Andrew Poppe, Samantha Hasler, Laura Mayorga, Carly Howett, Wesley Fraser, Jj Kavelars, Fumi Yoshida, Takashi Ito, Ivy Knudsen, Pontus Brandt

Abstract:

NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft continues to explore the Kuiper belt after its historic close flybys of the Pluto system in 2015 at ~33 astronomical units (AU) [1] and the cold classical Kuiper belt object (KBO) Arrokoth in 2019 at ~43 AU [2].  New Horizons is located at ~61.7 AU as of this writing in May 2025, and travels about 3 AU per year.  New Horizons has sufficient power, propellant, and communications capability to continue operations until the mid-to-late 2040s and, thus, should be able to collect data out to distances of ~120 AU or greater. In its extended mission, New Horizons’ main planetary science focus is studying Kuiper belt dwarf planets and small KBOs, and their environment.  We will provide an overview of results for the dwarf planets and smaller KBOs observed by New Horizons from a distance ([3-6]; also see Porter et al., 2025 abstract at this conference).  New Horizons can observe KBOs from much higher phase angles than possible from Earth, and some of the observed KBOs come as close as 0.1 AU to the spacecraft.  This allows for the study of shapes, poles, surface properties, and  searches for close satellites in some cases.  New Horizons also made high-phase, color observations of the ice giants Uranus and Neptune [7] in coordination with the Hubble Space Telescope and as an exoplanet observation analogue.  Further, the New Horizons Student Dust Counter continues to observe elevated dust fluxes at larger distances than expected, and the team is exploring possible explanations for why the dust flux has not yet started to decrease as predicted by previous models [8, 9].  We will also highlight some new products and findings related to Arrokoth, including a new shape model [10], images draped onto the shape model, and a study placing Arrokoth’s crater size-frequency distribution into the context of those on other small bodies [11].  Looking towards the future of New Horizons: We will provide a status update on the ground-based, Subaru Telescope search [12-14] for a future close flyby target and other KBOs that New Horizons could observe as point sources.  We will also discuss how future work would enhance the chances of finding a future flyby target for New Horizons, including the additional use of machine learning/artificial intelligence, supercomputing, and potential observations from the Vera Rubin Observatory (also see Kavelaars et al. 2025 abstract in this conference) or the Roman Space Telescope.References:[1]  Stern S. A. et al., 2015, The Pluto system: Initial results from its exploration by New Horizons, Science 350, id.aad1815. doi:10.1126/science.aad1815[2]  Stern S. A. et al., 2019, Initial results from the New Horizons exploration of 2014 MU69, a small Kuiper Belt object, Science 364. doi:10.1126/science.aaw9771[3]  Verbiscer A. J. et al., 2024, The New Horizons Photometric Phase Angle Survey of Deep Outer Solar System Objects: From the Kuiper Belt to the Scattered Disk, 55th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference. 3040, 2531.[4]  Verbiscer A. J. et al., 2022, The Diverse Shapes of Dwarf Planet and Large KBO Phase Curves Observed from New Horizons, The Planetary Science Journal 3, 95. doi:10.3847/PSJ/ac63a6[5]  Verbiscer A. J. et al., 2019, Phase Curves from the Kuiper Belt: Photometric Properties of Distant Kuiper Belt Objects Observed by New Horizons, Astron. J. 158. doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ab3211[6]  Porter S. B. et al., 2016, The First High-phase Observations of a KBO: New Horizons Imaging of (15810) 1994 JR1 from the Kuiper Belt, ApJ Letters 828. doi:10.3847/2041-8205/828/2/L15[7]  Hasler S. N. et al., 2024, Observations of Uranus at High Phase Angle as Seen by New Horizons, The Planetary Science Journal 5, 267. doi:10.3847/PSJ/ad8cdb[8]  Corbett T. et al., 2025, Production, Transport, and Destruction of Dust in the Kuiper Belt: The Effects of Refractory and Volatile Grain Compositions, Astrophys J. 979, L50. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/adab75[9]  Doner A. et al., 2024, New Horizons Venetia Burney Student Dust Counter Observes Higher than Expected Fluxes Approaching 60 AU, pp. arXiv:2401.01230.[10]  Porter S. B. et al., 2024, The Shape and Formation of Arrokoth, 55th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference. 3040, 2332.[11]  Knudsen I. E. et al., 2024, An Analysis of Impact Craters on Small Bodies Throughout the Solar System, The Trans-neptunian Solar System.[12]  Yoshida F. et al., 2024, A deep analysis for New Horizons' KBO search images, Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan 76, 720-732. doi:10.1093/pasj/psae043[13]  Fraser W. C. et al., 2024, Candidate Distant Trans-Neptunian Objects Detected by the New Horizons Subaru TNO Survey, The Planetary Science Journal 5, 227. doi:10.3847/PSJ/ad6f9e[14]  Buie M. W. et al., 2024, The New Horizons Extended Mission Target: Arrokoth Search and Discovery, The Planetary Science Journal 5, 196. doi:10.3847/PSJ/ad676d

Update to thermal inertia and albedo maps of Enceladus

Copernicus Publications (2025)

Authors:

Georgina Miles, Carly Howett, Julien Salmon

Abstract:

We present work to update current maps of the thermal properties of Enceladus using thermal observations from the Cassini Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS).  In 2010, the first maps of Enceladus’ thermal inertia were published that used what CIRS data was available at the time (Howett et al., 2010). These maps were resolved into some latitude zones, and overall conveyed lower thermal inertia and albedo at higher latitudes, and confirmed that like other cold, icy moons of Saturn its surface had low (< 50 MKS) thermal inertia.  Improvements to these maps using the totality of the CIRS Focal Plane 1 data (10-600 cm-1 / 16.7-1000 μm) from the mission with updated error estimates will yield better spatial resolution in addition to higher precision estimates of thermal inertia and albedo.   This will be particularly useful for improving models of surface temperature or estimating endogenic heat fluxes, like those at Enceladus’ south pole, associated with dissipation of heat from beneath.Acknowledgements: Thanks are given to the NASA Cassini Data Analysis program that funded this work (80NSSC20K0477 and 80NSSC24K0373). Reference:Howett, C.J.A., Spencer, J.R., Pearl, J. and Segura, M., 2010. Thermal inertia and bolometric Bond albedo values for Mimas, Enceladus, Tethys, Dione, Rhea and Iapetus as derived from Cassini/CIRS measurements. Icarus, 206(2), pp.573-593.

What goes on inside the Mars north polar vortex?

(2025)

Authors:

Kevin Olsen, Bethan Gregory, Franck Montmessin, Lucio Baggio, Franck Lefèvre, Oleg Korablev, Alexander Trokhimovsky, Anna Fedorova, Denis Belyaev, Juan Alday, Armin Kleinböhl

Abstract:

Mars has an axial tilt of 25.2°, comparable to that on Earth of 23.4°. This gives rise to very similar seasons, and even leads to our definition of Martian time, aligning the solar longitudes (Ls) such that Ls 0° and 180° occur at the equinoxes. In the northern hemisphere, between the equinoxes, the north polar region experiences polar days without darkness in spring and summer, and days of total darkness in the fall and winter. The dark polar winters give rise to a polar vortex that encircles the polar region and encircles an atmosphere of very cold and dry air bound within (1-3).The Atmospheric Chemistry Suite (ACS) mid-infrared channel (MIR) on the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO; 4) operates in solar occultation mode in which the Sun is used as a light source when the atmosphere lies between the Sun and TGO. The tangent point locations of ACS MIR observation necessarily lie on the solar terminator on Mars. At the poles when either polar night or polar day are experienced, there is no terminator, and solar occultations are restricted to outside such a region. The latitudinal distribution of ACS MIR solar occultations during the north polar fall and winter over four Mars years (MYs) is shown in Fig. 1. The furthest northern extent of observations occurs at the equinoxes, and falling northern boundary is seen between, as the north pole points further away from the Sun (similarly in the south, where it is polar day).While direct observations of the north polar vortex are forbidden with solar occultations, the polar vortex is not perfectly circular (1-3) and occasionally, descends into the illuminated region where we are making observations. The characteristic signs that we are sampling the polar vortex are a sudden drop in temperature below 20 km, the almost complete reduction in water vapour volume mixing ratio (VMR) and an enhancement in ozone VMR, the latter of which is extremely rare (5).To measure the extent of the polar vortex, we use temperature measurements from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS; 6, 7) on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). We define the polar vortex as the average temperature over 10-20 km being within a boundary of 170 K (30). We introduce a novel technique to determine this boundary during a 1° Ls period using an alpha hull. We show that we can accurately measure the area of the polar vortex and achieve similar results to (3). The impact of the southern summer and dust activity is clearly visible in the time series of the northern polar vortex extent, leading to maxima occurring at the equinoxes, and shrinking toward perihelion. The impact of global dust storms and the late season dust storms are also pronounced.We will show the vertical structure of water vapour and ozone VMRs inside and outside the north polar vortex, the results of a search for polar vortex temperatures from the near-infrared channel (NIR) of ACS (along the dark blue dots in Fig. 1), and show whether these results agree with the polar vortex extent measurements using MCS.       Figure 1: The latitudes of ACS MIR solar occultation as a function of time (solar longitude Ls) during northern fall (Ls 180-270°) and winter (Ls 270-360°). Data from Mars years (MYs) 34-37 are indicated with colours. The region of interest in searching for polar vortex excursions is highlighted in blue.References:(1) Streeter, P. M. et al. J. Geophys. Res. 126, e2020JE006774 (2021).(2) Streeter, P. M., Lewis, S. R., Patel, M. R., Holmes, J. A., & Rajendran, K. Icarus 409, 115864 (2024).(3) Alsaeed, N.R., Hayne, P. O. & Concepcion, V. J. Geophys. Res. 129, e2024JE008397 (2024).(4) Korablev, O. et al. Space Sci. Rev. 214, 7 (2018).(5) Olsen, K. S., et al. J. Geophys. Res. 127, e2022JE007213 (2022).(6) Kleinböhl, A., et al. J. Geophys. Res., 114, E10006 (2009).(7) Kleinböhl, A., Friedson, A. J., & Schofield, J. T. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer. 187, 511-522 (2017).