Deviations from normal distributions in artificial and real time series: a false positive prescription

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press 489:2 (2019) 2117-2129

Authors:

Paul Morris, N Chakraborty, G Cotter

Abstract:

ABSTRACT Time-series analysis allows for the determination of the Power Spectral Density (PSD) and Probability Density Function (PDF) for astrophysical sources. The former of these illustrates the distribution of power at various time-scales, typically taking a power-law form, while the latter characterizes the distribution of the underlying stochastic physical processes, with Gaussian and lognormal functional forms both physically motivated. In this paper, we use artificial time series generated using the prescription of Timmer & Koenig to investigate connections between the PDF and PSD. PDFs calculated for these artificial light curves are less likely to be well described by a Gaussian functional form for steep (Γ⪆1) PSD indices due to weak non-stationarity. Using the Fermi LAT monthly light curve of the blazar PKS2155-304 as an example, we prescribe and calculate a false positive rate that indicates how likely the PDF is to be attributed an incorrect functional form. Here, we generate large numbers of artificial light curves with intrinsically normally distributed PDFs and with statistical properties consistent with observations. These are used to evaluate the probabilities that either Gaussian or lognormal functional forms better describe the PDF. We use this prescription to show that PKS2155-304 requires a high prior probability of having a normally distributed PDF, $P(\rm {G})~$ ≥ 0.82, for the calculated PDF to prefer a Gaussian functional form over a lognormal. We present possible choices of prior and evaluate the probability that PKS2155-304 has a lognormally distributed PDF for each.

Using sparse Gaussian processes for predicting robust inertial confinement fusion implosion yields

IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science IEEE (2019) 1-6

Authors:

Peter Hatfield, S Rose, R Scott, I Almosallam, S Roberts, M Jarvis

Discovery of a radio transient in M81

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) 489:1 (2019) 1181-1196

Authors:

GE Anderson, JCA Miller-Jones, MJ Middleton, R Soria, DA Swartz, R Urquhart, N Hurley-Walker, PJ Hancock, RP Fender, P Gandhi, S Markoff, TP Roberts

The 2018 outburst of BHXB H1743−322 as seen with MeerKAT

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press 491:1 (2019) L28-L33

Authors:

David Williams, R Fender, J Bright, I Heywood, E Tremou, P Woudt, DAH Buckley, S Corbel, M Coriat, T Joseph, L Rhodes, GR Sivakoff, AJVD Horst

Abstract:

In recent years, the black hole candidate X-ray binary system H1743-322 has undergone outbursts and it has been observed with X-ray and radio telescopes. We present 1.3 GHz MeerKAT radio data from the ThunderKAT Large Survey Project on radio transients for the 2018 outburst of H1743-322. We obtain seven detections from a weekly monitoring programme and use publicly available Swift X-ray Telescope and MAXI data to investigate the radio/X-ray correlation of H1743-322 for this outburst. We compare the 2018 outburst with those reported in the literature for this system and find that the X-ray outburst reported is similar to previously reported 'hard-only' outbursts. As in previous outbursts, H1743-322 follows the 'radio-quiet' correlation in the radio/X-ray plane for black hole X-ray binaries, and the radio spectral index throughout the outburst is consistent with the 'radio-quiet' population.

The C-Band All-Sky Survey (C-BASS): Simulated parametric fitting in single pixels in total intensity and polarization

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press 490:2 (2019) 2958-2975

Authors:

Luke Jew, AC Taylor, Michael Jones, A Barr, HC Chiang, C Dickinson, RDP Grumitt, HM Heilgendorff, J Hill-Valler, JL Jonas, JP Leahy, J Leech, TJ Pearson, MW Peel, ACS Readhead, J Sievers

Abstract:

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode signal is potentially weaker than the diffuse Galactic foregrounds over most of the sky at any frequency. A common method of separating the CMB from these foregrounds is via pixel-based parametric-model fitting. There are not currently enough all-sky maps to fit anything more than the most simple models of the sky. By simulating the emission in seven representative pixels, we demonstrate that the inclusion of a 5 GHz data point allows for more complex models of low-frequency foregrounds to be fitted than at present. It is shown that the inclusion of the C-BASS data will significantly reduce the uncertainties in a number of key parameters in the modelling of both the galactic foregrounds and the CMB. The extra data allow estimates of the synchrotron spectral index to be constrained much more strongly than is presently possible, with corresponding improvements in the accuracy of the recovery of the CMB amplitude. However, we show that to place good limits on models of the synchrotron spectral curvature will require additional low-frequency data.