Prof Suzanne Aigrain

Abstract:

To date, only 18 exoplanets with radial velocity (RV) semi-amplitude <2 m s⁻¹ have had their masses directly constrained. The biggest obstacle to RV detection of such exoplanets is variability intrinsic to stars themselves, e.g. nuisance signals arising from surface magnetic activity such as rotating spots and plages, which can drown out or even mimic planetary RV signals. We use Kepler-37 – known to host three transiting planets, one of which, Kepler-37d, should be on the cusp of RV detectability with modern spectrographs – as a case study in disentangling planetary and stellar activity signals. We show how two different statistical techniques – one seeking to identify activity signals in stellar spectra, and another to model activity signals in extracted RVs and activity indicators – can each enable a detection of the hitherto elusive Kepler-37d. Moreover, we show that these two approaches can be complementary, and in combination, facilitate a definitive detection and precise characterization of Kepler-37d. Its RV semi-amplitude of 1.22 ± 0.31 m s⁻¹ (mass 5.4 ± 1.4 M_⊕) is formally consistent with TOI-178b’s 1.05^+0.25_−0.30 m s⁻¹, the latter being the smallest detected RV signal of any transiting planet to date, though dynamical simulations suggest Kepler-37d’s mass may be on the lower end of our 1σ credible interval. Its consequent density is consistent with either a water-world or that of a gaseous envelope (⁠∼0.4 per cent by mass) surrounding a rocky core. Based on RV modelling and a re-analysis of Kepler-37 TTVs, we also suggest that the putative (non-transiting) planet Kepler-37e should be stripped of its ‘confirmed’ status.

Abstract:

Observational studies of exoplanets are suggestive of a ubiquitous presence of clouds. The current modelling techniques used in emission to account for the clouds tend to require prior knowledge of the cloud condensing species and often do not consider the scattering effects of the cloud. We explore the effects that thermal scattering has on the emission spectra by modelling a suite of hot Jupiter atmospheres with varying cloud single-scattering albedos (SSAs) and temperature profiles. We examine cases ranging from simple isothermal conditions to more complex structures and physically driven cloud modelling. We show that scattering from nightside clouds would lead to brightness temperatures that are cooler than the real atmospheric temperature if scattering is unaccounted for. We show that scattering can produce spectral signatures in the emission spectrum even for isothermal atmospheres. We identify the retrieval degeneracies and biases that arise in the context of simulated JWST spectra when the scattering from the clouds dominates the spectral shape. Finally, we propose a novel method of fitting the SSA spectrum of the cloud in emission retrievals, using a technique that does not require any prior knowledge of the cloud chemical or physical properties.