Professor Myles Allen CBE FRS

Abstract:

Mitigating short-term global warming is imperative, and a key strategy involves reducing atmospheric methane (CH4) due to its high radiative forcing and short lifespan. This objective can be achieved through methods such as oxidising methane at its source or implementing enhanced oxidation techniques to reduce atmospheric CH4 concentrations. In this study, we use a range of metrics to analyse both the impact and value of enhanced CH4 oxidation relative to carbon dioxide (CO2) removal on global temperature. We apply these metrics to a select group of model studies of thermal-catalytic, photocatalytic, biological and capture-based oxidation processes under different greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Using a target cost of €220-1000/tCO2 for CO2 removal, our findings indicate that metrics valuing enhanced oxidation techniques based on their contribution to mitigating the long-term level of warming show these techniques are uncompetitive with CO2 removal. However, when using metrics that value enhanced oxidation of CH4 based on its impact on the immediate rate of warming, photocatalytic methods may be competitive with CO2 removal, whereas biofiltration, thermal-catalytic oxidation and capture-based units remain uncompetitive. We conclude that if the policy goal is to target the immediate rate of warming, it may be more valuable to incentivise CO2 removal and enhanced oxidation of methane under separate GHG targets.

Abstract:

This report summarises the content and discussion of an Agile Initiative workshop held at the University of Oxford on March 1st 2024, discussing “what do we need to know to safely store CO2 in our UK continental shelf seas?”

Abstract:

To limit the detrimental impacts of climate change, large-scale and rapid decarbonization is required. China announced their plan to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, which faces many challenges including rising energy consumption and a significant, ongoing expansion of coal-based electricity generation capacity. This study employs mixed methods to explore a portfolio of climate policies related to the transport and energy sectors for two leading Chinese cities: Beijing and Hong Kong. A total of 32 expert interviews were conducted with four stakeholder groups in both cities to canvas opinions on the most important policies for decarbonization. With the aim to understand how local policy measures can be prioritized for disproportionately large emissions reductions, the Sensitive Intervention Points (SIPs) framework was applied to identify city-level policy interventions with the potential for high impact, speed, feasibility, persistence, and low risk, based on these expert interviews and literature review. With all attributes combined, leveraging the global cost declines in renewable energy was identified as a shared accelerated carbon neutrality pathway for both cities, facilitated by policies to promote the import of low-carbon energy and accelerating the electrification of transport. Alignments were found between this final list of SIPs and policies perceived as important by the experts, indicating that SIPs are generally intuitive, with alternative policy prioritizations likely influenced by additional factors such as the national agenda, budgetary constraints, and the availability of co-benefits.