Raymond Pierrehumbert FRS

Abstract:

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Abstract:

Condensible substances are nearly ubiquitous in planetary atmospheres. For the most familiar case—water vapor in Earth's present climate—the condensible gas is dilute, in the sense that its concentration is everywhere small relative to the noncondensible background gases. A wide variety of important planetary climate problems involve nondilute condensible substances. These include planets near or undergoing a water vapor runaway and planets near the outer edge of the conventional habitable zone, for which CO2 is the condensible. Standard representations of convection in climate models rely on several approximations appropriate only to the dilute limit, while nondilute convection differs in fundamental ways from dilute convection. In this paper, a simple parameterization of convection valid in the nondilute as well as dilute limits is derived and used to discuss the basic character of nondilute convection. The energy conservation properties of the scheme are discussed in detail and are verified in radiative-convective simulations. As a further illustration of the behavior of the scheme, results for a runaway greenhouse atmosphere for both steady instellation and seasonally varying instellation corresponding to a highly eccentric orbit are presented. The latter case illustrates that the high thermal inertia associated with latent heat in nondilute atmospheres can damp out the effects of even extreme seasonal forcing.

Abstract:

Bringing global warming to a halt requires that worldwide net emissions of carbon dioxide be brought to essentially zero, and the sooner this occurs, the less warming our descendants for the next thousand years and more will need to adapt to. The widespread fear that the actions needed to bring this about conflict with economic growth is a major impediment to efforts to protect the climate. However, much of this fear is pointless, and the magnitude of the task, while great, is no greater than challenges human ingenuity has surmounted in the past. To light the way forward, there is a need for examining success stories in which nations have greatly reduced their carbon dioxide emissions while simultaneously maintaining vigorous growth in the standard of living. In this article, the example of Sweden is showcased. Through a combination of sensible government infrastructure policies and free-market incentives, Sweden has managed to successfully decarbonize, cutting its per capita emissions by a factor of three since the 1970s, while doubling its pre capita income and providing a wide range of social benefits. This has all be accomplished within a vigorous capitalistic framework which in many ways embodies freemarket principles better than the economy of the United States.