Prof Christopher Ramsey

Abstract:

If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical meth- ods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used "uniform phase" models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run sim- ulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing pos- sible problems with statistical models of this kind. © 2009 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona.

Abstract:

While an interhemispheric offset in atmospheric radiocarbon levels from AD 1950-950 is now well established, its existence earlier in the Holocene is less clear, with some studies reporting globally uniform 14C levels while others finding Southern Hemisphere samples older by a few decades. In this paper, we present a method for wiggle-matching Southern Hemisphere data sets against Northern Hemisphere curves, using the Bayesian calibration program OxCal 4.1 with the Reservoir Offset function accommodating a potential interhemispheric offset. The accuracy and robustness of this approach is confirmed by wiggle-matching known-calendar age sequences of the Southern Hemisphere calibration curve SHCal04 against the Northern Hemisphere curve IntCal04. We also show that 5 of 9 Holocene Southern Hemisphere data sets are capable of yielding reliable offset information. Those data sets that are accurate and precise show that interhemispheric offset levels in the Early Holocene are similar to modern levels, confirming SHCal04 as the curve of choice for calibrating Southern Hemisphere samples. © 2009 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona.

Abstract:

The wide availability of precise radiocarbon dates has allowed researchers in a number of disciplines to address chronological questions at a resolution which was not possible 10 or 20 years ago. The use of Bayesian statistics for the analysis of groups of dates is becoming a common way to integrate all of the 14C evidence together. However, the models most often used make a number of assumptions that may not always be appropriate. In particular, there is an assumption that all of the 14C measurements are correct in their context and that the original 14C concentration of the sample is properly represented by the calibration curve. © 2009 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona.

Abstract:

The most extensive chronometric study ever undertaken on Egyptian Dynastic sites was published in Radiocarbon by Bonani et al. (2001). It comprised 269 radiocarbon measurements on monuments ranging from the 1st-12th dynasties. However, many of the calibrated dates obtained were significantly offset from historical estimates. The greatest discrepancies occurred in the 4th Dynasty where, paradoxically, the dating program had been most rigorous. For this period, 158 measurements were made at 12 sites, with the majority of the dates being 200-300 yr older than expected. The 4th Dynasty results were especially significant as they included some of the most important monuments in Egypt. In this paper, the raw data from that study have been reanalyzed using the OxCal calibration program, making particular use of its new outlier detection functionality. This Bayesian approach has resulted in a new series of calibrations that show much closer agreement with conventional chronological records. © 2009 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona.

Abstract:

A slice of pine from the period covered by single-year calibration data (Stuiver 1993) was selected to serve as part of the quality assurance procedures of the English Heritage radiocarbon dating program, following successful wiggle-matching of 14C measurements from structural 15th century English oak timbers (Hamilton et al. 2007). The timber selected was a roofing element from a house on Jermyn Street, central London, demonstrated by dendrochronology to have been felled in AD 1670. Eighteen single-ring samples were dated by the 14C laboratories at Groningen, Oxford, and SUERC: each labo-ratory was sent a random selection of 6 samples. This approach was intended to mimic the mix of samples and relative ages incorporated into Bayesian chronological models during routine project research. This paper presents the results of this study. © 2009 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona.