Prof. Peter Read

Abstract:

Synchronization is now well established as representing coherent behaviour between two or more otherwise autonomous nonlinear systems subject to some degree of coupling. Such behaviour has mainly been studied to date, however, in relatively low-dimensional discrete systems or networks. But the possibility of similar kinds of behaviour in continuous or extended spatiotemporal systems has many potential practical implications, especially in various areas of geophysics. We review here a range of cyclically varying phenomena within the Earth's climate system for which there may be some evidence or indication of the possibility of synchronized behaviour, albeit perhaps imperfect or highly intermittent. The exploitation of this approach is still at a relatively early stage within climate science and dynamics, in which the climate system is regarded as a hierarchy of many coupled sub-systems with complex nonlinear feedbacks and forcings. The possibility of synchronization between climate oscillations (global or local) and a predictable external forcing raises important questions of how models of such phenomena can be validated and verified, since the resulting response may be relatively insensitive to the details of the model being synchronized. The use of laboratory analogues may therefore have an important role to play in the study of natural systems that can only be observed and for which controlled experiments are impossible. We go on to demonstrate that synchronization can be observed in the laboratory, even in weakly coupled fluid dynamical systems that may serve as direct analogues of the behaviour of major components of the Earth's climate system. The potential implications and observability of these effects in the long-term climate variability of the Earth is further discussed.

Abstract:

Maps of Ertel potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces (IPV) and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (QGPV) are well established in dynamical meteorology as powerful sources of insight into dynamical processes involving 'balanced' flow (i.e. geostrophic or similar). Here we derive maps of zonal mean IPV and QGPV in Saturn's upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by making use of a combination of velocity measurements, derived from the combined tracking of cloud features in images from the Voyager and Cassini missions, and thermal measurements from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument. IPV and QGPV are mapped and compared for the entire globe between latitudes 89{ring operator} S - 82{ring operator} N. As on Jupiter, profiles of zonally averaged PV show evidence for a step-like "stair-case" pattern suggestive of local PV homogenisation, separated by strong PV gradients in association with eastward jets. The northward gradient of PV (IPV or QGPV) is found to change sign in several places in each hemisphere, however, even when baroclinic contributions are taken into account. The stability criterion with respect to Arnol'd's second stability theorem may be violated near the peaks of westward jets. Visible, near-IR and thermal-IR Cassini observations have shown that these regions exhibit many prominent, large-scale eddies and waves, e.g. including 'storm alley'. This suggests the possibility that at least some of these features originate from instabilities of the background zonal flow. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Abstract:

Saturn inhabits a dynamical regime of rapidly rotating, internally heated atmospheres similar to Jupiter. Zonal winds have remained fairly steady since the time of Voyager except in the equatorial zone and slightly stronger winds occur at deeper levels. Eddies supply energy to the jets at a rate somewhat less than on Jupiter and mix potential vorticity near westward jets. Convective clouds exist preferentially in cyclonic shear regions as on Jupiter but also near jets, including major outbreaks near 35°S associated with Saturn electrostatic discharges, and in sporadic giant equatorial storms perhaps generated from frequent events at depth. The implied meridional circulation at and below the visible cloud tops consists of upwelling (downwelling) at cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) shear latitudes. Thermal winds decay upward above the clouds, implying a reversal of the circulation there. Warm-core vortices with associated cyclonic circulations exist at both poles, including surrounding thick high clouds at the south pole. Disequilibrium gas concentrations in the tropical upper troposphere imply rising motion there. The radiative-convective boundary and tropopause occur at higher pressure in the southern (summer) hemisphere due to greater penetration of solar heating there. A temperature "knee" of warm air below the tropopause, perhaps due to haze heating, is stronger in the summer hemisphere as well. Saturn's south polar stratosphere is warmer than predicted by radiative models and enhanced in ethane, suggesting subsidence-driven adiabatic warming there. Recent modeling advances suggest that shallow weather layer theories of jet pumping may be viable if water condensation is the source of energy input driving the flow, and that deep convective cylinder models with a sufficiently large tangent cylinder radius can reproduce observed flow features as well.