Tracing North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast Errors to Stratospheric Origins
Multi-thousand member ensemble atmospheric simulations with global 60km resolution using climateprediction.net
Abstract:
Multi-thousand member climate model simulations are highly valuable for showing how extreme weather events will change as the climate changes, using a physically-based approach. However, until now, studies using such an approach have been limited to using models with a resolution much coarser than the most modern systems. We have developed a global atmospheric model with 5/6°x5/9° resolution (~60km in middle latitudes) that can be run in the climateprediction.net distributed computing system to produce such large datasets. This resolution is finer than that of many current global climate models and sufficient for good simulation of extratropical synoptic features such as storms. It will also allow many extratropical extreme weather events to be simulated without requiring regional downscaling. We will show that this model's simulation of extratropical weather is competitive with that in other current models. We will also present results from the first multi-thousand member ensembles produced at this resolution, showing the impact of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming on extreme winter rainfall and extratropical cyclones in Europe.Effect of the North Pacific tropospheric waveguide on the fidelity of model El-Niño teleconnections Effect of the North Pacific tropospheric waveguide on the fidelity of model El-Niño teleconnections
Evaluating key aspects of large-scale circulation for Europe in a coupled PPE
The influence of Antarctic topography on jet streams and Rossby waves in the Southern Hemisphere.
Abstract:
Eddy-driven jets are sustained through momentum transport by Rossby waves, which propagate along potential vorticity (PV) gradients. In the atmosphere, spatial variations in time-mean PV are mostly dominated by the variation of the Coriolis parameter with latitude. However, at high southern latitudes, a significant perturbation to the distribution and mixing of PV is provided by the Antarctic Plateau, which rises up to 4km above sea level. It is therefore possible that this orography affects Rossby wave propagation and hence affects the circulation in mid-latitudes.
We show through a set of semi-realistic and idealised experiments, that Antarctic topography plays a fundamental role in shaping the structure of the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. In particular, we perform runs with and without the Antarctic Plateau and demonstrate that the Plateau alters Rossby wave structure and propagation, thereby changing the momentum fluxes. Removal of the Plateau weakens the Indian Ocean jet and has a substantial effect on the flow downstream over the South Pacific. Here, the characteristic split jet pattern is destroyed and the flow at high latitudes stagnates. This also illustrates the prevalence of downstream development in the Southern Hemisphere and the strong connections between the flow over the South Pacific and Indian Oceans.