Tim Woollings

Abstract:

The UK Met Office Unified Model in the Global Coupled 2 (GC2) configuration has a warm bias of up to almost 7K in the Gulf Stream SSTs in the winter season, which is associated with surface heat flux biases and potentially related to biases in the atmospheric circulation. The role of this SST bias is examined with a focus on the tropospheric response by performing three sensitivity experiments. The SST biases are imposed on the atmosphere-only configuration of the model over a small and medium section of the Gulf Stream, and also the wider North Atlantic. Here we show that the dynamical response to this anomalous Gulf Stream heating (and associated shifting and changing SST gradients) is to enhance vertical motion in the transient eddies over the Gulf Stream, rather than balance the heating with a linear dynamical meridional wind or meridional eddy heat transport. Together with the imposed Gulf Stream heating bias, the response affects the troposphere not only locally but also in remote regions of the Northern Hemisphere via a planetary Rossby wave response. The sensitivity experiments partially reproduce some of the differences in the coupled configuration of the model relative to the atmosphere-only configuration and to the ERA-Interim reanalysis. These biases may have implications for the ability of the model to respond correctly to variability or changes in the Gulf Stream. Better global prediction therefore requires particular focus on reducing any large western boundary current SST biases in these regions of high ocean-atmosphere interaction.

Abstract:

The variance of a jet’s position in latitude is found to be related to its average speed: when a jet becomes stronger its variability in latitude decreases. This relationship is shown to hold for observed midlatitude jets around the world and also across a hierarchy of numerical models. North Atlantic jet variability is shown to be modulated on decadal timescales, with decades of a strong, steady jet being interspersed with decades of a weak, variable jet. These modulations are also related to variations in the basin-wide occurrence of high-impact blocking events. A picture emerges of complex multidecadal jet variability in which recent decades do not appear unusual. We propose an underlying barotropic mechanism to explain this behaviour, related to the change in refractive properties of a jet as it strengthens, and the subsequent effect on the distribution of Rossby wave breaking.

Abstract:

This study reconciles two perspectives on wintertime atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic-European sector: the zonal-mean framework comprising three preferred locations of the eddy-driven jet (southern, central, northern), and the weather regime framework comprising four classical North Atlantic-European regimes (Atlantic ridge AR, zonal ZO, European/Scandinavian blocking BL, Greenland anticyclone GA). A k-means clustering algorithm is used to characterize the two-dimensional variability of the eddy-driven jet stream, defined by the lower tropospheric zonal wind in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The first three clusters capture the central jet and northern jet, along with a new mixed jet configuration; a fourth cluster is needed to recover the southern jet. The mixed cluster represents a split or strongly tilted jet, neither of which is well described in the zonal-mean framework, and has a persistence of about one week, similar to the other clusters. Connections between the preferred jet locations and weather regimes are corroborated – southern to GA, central to ZO, and northern to AR. In addition, the new mixed cluster is found to be linked to European/Scandinavian blocking, whose relation to the eddy-driven jet was previously unclear.

Abstract:

Statistical models of climate generally regard climate variability as anomalies about a climatological seasonal cycle, which are treated as a stationary stochastic process plus a long-term seasonally dependent trend. However, the climate system has deterministic aspects apart from the climatological seasonal cycle and long-term trends, and the assumption of stationary statistics is only an approximation. The variability of the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation in the period encompassing late spring and summer is an important climate phenomenon and has been the subject of numerous studies. It is shown here, using re-analysis data, that this variability is rendered highly non-stationary by the organizing influence of the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, which breaks time symmetry. It is argued that the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation variability during this period is best viewed as interannual variability in the transition between the springtime and summertime regimes induced by variability in the vortex breakdown. In particular, the apparent long-term poleward jet shift during the early-summer season can be more simply understood as a delay in the equatorward shift associated with this regime transition. The implications of such a perspective for various open questions are discussed.