Tim Woollings

Abstract:

©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. The role of extratropical diabatic heating in the variability of storm tracks and jet streams remains an important open question. This paper analyzes the role of diabatic heating in observationally constrained analysis data for the 2010 winter, which was notable for an extreme southward shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. An isentropic slope framework is employed by which the contribution of diabatic terms to the maintenance of seasonal mean baroclinicity can be quantified. This reveals a striking contrast between the eastern North Atlantic, where the latent heating shifted south along with the storm track in 2010, and the western North Atlantic, where the latent heating remained fixed over the Gulf Stream. This motivates the hypothesis that the latent heating may contribute to the anchoring of the storm track entrance over the Gulf Stream but provide a very different feedback on the jet variability downstream.

Abstract:

Atmospheric modes of variability relevant for extreme temperature and precipitation events are evaluated in models currently being used for extreme event attribution. A 100 member initial condition ensemble of the global circulation model HadAM3P is compared with both the multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the CMIP5 atmosphere-only counterparts (AMIP5). The use of HadAM3P allows for huge ensembles to be computed relatively fast, thereby providing unique insights into the dynamics of extremes. The analysis focuses on mid Northern Latitudes (primarily Europe) during winter, and is compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. The tri-modal Atlantic eddy-driven jet distribution is remarkably well captured in HadAM3P, but not so in the CMIP5 or AMIP5 multi-model mean, although individual models fare better. The well known underestimation of blocking in the Atlantic region is apparent in CMIP5 and AMIP5, and also, to a lesser extent, in HadAM3P. Pacific blocking features are well produced in all modeling initiatives. Blocking duration is biased towards models reproducing too many short-lived events in all three modelling systems. Associated storm tracks are too zonal over the Atlantic in the CMIP5 and AMIP5 ensembles, but better simulated in HadAM3P with the exception of being too weak over Western Europe. In all cases, the CMIP5 and AMIP5 performances were almost identical, suggesting that the biases in atmospheric modes considered here are not strongly coupled to SSTs, and perhaps other model characteristics such as resolution are more important. For event attribution studies, it is recommended that rather than taking statistics over the entire CMIP5 or AMIP5 available models, only models capable of producing the relevant dynamical phenomena be employed.

Abstract:

The behaviour of the eddy-driven jet over the Atlantic sector during the winter season is analysed for the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the coupled and atmosphere-only configuration of HadGEM3-GC2 - the climate model in use at the Met Office. The tri-modal distribution that reveals the jet-stream structure in terms of its preferred locations is reproduced with good accuracy by the model, although a distinct bias towards the high-latitude position is observed. Two different scenarios are found to contribute to this bias. One occurs when the jet shifts from its southern regime, whereby it settles too far north and for too long compared to the reanalysis. The other is associated with the exit from the central latitude regime, with too many events shifting poleward rather than equatorward.Excessively large lower tropospheric eddy heat fluxes during these transitions may account for the jet errors, even though the heat fluxes do not exhibit a climatological bias.Interestingly, these biases are weaker when the atmosphere model is forced with observed SSTs,suggesting that either it is vital to have the correct SST distribution or that ocean-atmosphere coupling plays a key role in the biases. Additional analysis revealed that the Pacific jet exit is biased south in the coupled model and that this is likely to contribute to the Atlantic bias. Anomalously warm SSTs in the Gulf Stream region may be acting together with the Pacific bias in fostering the anomalous activity in the low level eddy heat fluxes.

Abstract:

Mid-latitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward-moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the EuroAtlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.

Abstract:

© 2016 The Authors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.The 11-year solar cycle signal in December–January–February (DJF) averaged mean-sea-level pressure (SLP) and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870–2010 (140 years; ∼13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3–4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660–2010 (350 years; ∼32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0–2 year lags and one via the mixed-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3–4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic/European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at ∼1-year lag that originates primarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.