Tim Woollings

Abstract:

The extra-tropical atmosphere is characterized by robust circulations which have time scales longer than that associated with developing baroclinic systems but shorter than a season. Such low frequency variability is governed to a large extent by non-linear dynamics, and hence is chaotic. A useful aspect of this low-frequency circulation is that it can often be described by just a few quasi-stationary regime states, broadly defined as recurrent or persistent large scale structures, that exert a significant impact on the probability of experiencing extreme surface weather conditions. We review a variety of techniques for identifying circulation regimes from reanalysis and numerical model output. While various techniques often yield similar regime circulation patterns, they offer different perspectives on the regimes. The regimes themselves are manifest in planetary scale patterns. They affect the structure of synoptic scale patterns. Extra-tropical flow regimes have been identified in simplified atmospheric models and comprehensive coupled climate models and in reanalysis data sets. It is an ongoing challenge to accurately model these regime states and high horizontal resolutions are often needed to accurately reproduce them. The regime paradigm helps to understand the response to external forcing on a variety of time scales, has been helpful in categorizing a large number of weather types and their effect on local conditions, and is useful in downscaling. Despite their usefulness, there is a debate on the \non-equivocal" and systematic existence of these nonlinear circulation regimes. We review our current understanding of the nonlinear and regime paradigms and suggest future research.

Abstract:

Abstract This study investigates atmospheric blocking over eastern South America in austral summer for the period of 1979–2014. The results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. It is found that the MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anticorrelated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001, and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.

Abstract:

In this study, we investigate atmospheric blocking over east South America in austral summer for the period of 1979-2014. Our results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. We find that MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anti-correlated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001 and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.

Abstract:

The mechanism by which the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature (SST) front anchors a band of precipitation on its warm edge is still a matter of debate and little is known about how synoptic activity contributes to the mean state. In the present study, the influence of the SST front on precipitation is investigated during the course of a single extratropical cyclone using a regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The comparison of a control run with a simulation in which SST gradients were smoothed brought the following conclusions: a band of precipitation is reproduced for a single extratropical cyclone and the response to the SST gradient is dominated by a change of convective precipitation in the cold sector of the storm. Several climatological features described by previous studies, such as surface wind convergence on the warm edge or a meridional circulation cell across the SST front, are also reproduced at synoptic time scales in the cold sector. Based on these results, a simple boundary layer model is proposed to explain the convective and dynamical response to the SST gradient in the cold sector. In this model, cold and dry air parcels acquire more buoyancy over a sharp SST gradient and become more convectively unstable. The convection sets a pressure anomaly over the entire depth of the boundary layer which drives wind convergence. This case study offers a new pathway by which the SST gradient can anchor a climatological band of precipitation.

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate the influence of the Gulf Stream SST front on the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and its variability, by analysing the NCEP-CFSR dataset and a pair of AGCM simulations forced with realistic and smoothed Gulf Stream SST boundary conditions. The Gulf Stream SST front acts to generate stronger meridional eddy heat flux in the lower-troposphere and an eddy-driven jet over the eastern North Atlantic that is located further polewards, compared to the simulation with smoothed SST. The strong Gulf Stream SST gradient is found to be crucial in more accurately capturing the trimodal distribution of the eddy-driven jet latitude, with the more poleward climatological jet being the result of the jet occupying the northern jet position more frequently in the simulation forced with observed SSTs. The more frequent occurence of the northern jet location is associated with periods of high eddy heat flux over the Gulf Stream region. Composite analysis of high eddy heat flux events reveals that the significantly higher heat flux is followed by larger and more persistient poleward jet excursions in the simulations with realistic SSTs compared to the simulation with smoothed SSTs, with upper-tropospheric eddy momentum fluxes acting to maintain the more poleward eddy-driven jet. Periods of high eddy heat flux over the Gulf Stream region are also shown to be associated with increased blocking frequency over Europe, which are clearly distinct from periods with a northern jet position.