Climate dynamics

Abstract:

Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Abstract:

Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate requires knowledge of solar variability, solar-terrestrial interactions, and the mechanisms determining the response of the Earth's climate system. We provide a summary of our current understanding in each of these three areas. Observations and mechanisms for the Sun's variability are described, including solar irradiance variations on both decadal and centennial time scales and their relation to galactic cosmic rays. Corresponding observations of variations of the Earth's climate on associated time scales are described, including variations in ozone, temperatures, winds, clouds, precipitation, and regional modes of variability such as the monsoons and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A discussion of the available solar and climate proxies is provided. Mechanisms proposed to explain these climate observations are described, including the effects of variations in solar irradiance and of charged particles. Finally, the contributions of solar variations to recent observations of global climate change are discussed. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Abstract:

Tim Woollings discusses the reasons behind the natural events such as the cold European winter of 2009-10, heatwave in Russia, and devastating floods in Pakistan. The jet streams are literally jets of fast-moving air that are strongest about 10km up in the atmosphere - around the level where airliners fly. Jet streams vary in strength from week to week. One of the most common variations in the North Atlantic jet stream is for the whole jet to shift to the north or the south. While the North Atlantic jet stream generally points roughly due east, straight across the Atlantic, it often meanders north and south. When waves on the ocean surface become too large they overturn and break, resulting in very turbulent motion. When Rossby waves break, the resulting weather situation is known as blocking.

Abstract:

We study the response of the Southern Hemisphere circulation to the 1982 eruption of El Chichón and 1991 eruption of Pinatubo volcanoes in a suite of up-to-date coupled climate models. We find a significant response in austral spring and autumn in the years following the eruptions, which consists of a stronger stratospheric polar vortex and lowered sea-level pressure over the Antarctic, both consistent with the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. The seasonality of the response may be explained in terms of zonal flow-planetary wave interactions. This dynamical response is inconsistent with the observational reanalyses in the polar stratosphere in spring, but not in the troposphere where the internal variability is large compared to the magnitude of the response. © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.