Climate dynamics

Abstract:

Climate model hindcasts are analyzed to reveal the impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the North Atlantic subpolar ocean, which exhibits variability on seasonal to decadal timescales. The ocean response to a single winter NAO event is separated into fast and slow responses. The fast response persists over winter–spring seasons, during which wind stress and heat flux anomalies associated with the NAO rapidly modify ocean temperatures via changes in Ekman transport and ocean-atmosphere heat exchanges. The slow response persists for 3–4 years, during which overturning and gyre circulations redistribute opposing-signed surface temperature anomalies created by the NAO. This redistribution modifies east-west temperature contrasts altering the meridional heat transport associated with gyres and changing the strength of the overturning circulation. Hence, the fast and slow responses lead to opposing-signed subpolar temperature anomalies in time from the competing effects of local forcing and horizontal heat convergence.

Abstract:

Cycling of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and interior of rocky planets can stabilize global climate and enable planetary surface temperatures above freezing over geologic time. However, variations in global carbon budget and unstable feedback cycles between planetary sub-systems may destabilize the climate of rocky exoplanets toward regimes unknown in the Solar System. Here, we perform clear-sky atmospheric radiative transfer and surface weathering simulations to probe the stability of climate equilibria for rocky, ocean-bearing exoplanets at instellations relevant for planetary systems in the outer regions of the circumstellar habitable zone. Our simulations suggest that planets orbiting G- and F-type stars (but not M-type stars) may display bistability between an Earth-like climate state with efficient carbon sequestration and an alternative stable climate equilibrium where CO₂ condenses at the surface and forms a blanket of either clathrate hydrate or liquid CO₂. At increasing instellation and with ineffective weathering, the latter state oscillates between cool, surface CO₂-condensing and hot, non-condensing climates. CO₂ bistable climates may emerge early in planetary history and remain stable for billions of years. The carbon dioxide-condensing climates follow an opposite trend in pCO₂ versus instellation compared to the weathering-stabilized planet population, suggesting the possibility of observational discrimination between these distinct climate categories.

Abstract:

Since the 1980s, external forcings from increasing greenhouse gases and declining aerosols have had a large effect on European summer temperatures. These forcings may therefore provide an important source of forecast skill, even for timescales as short as a season ahead. However, the relative importance of external forcings for seasonal forecasts has thus far received little attention, particularly on a regional scale. In this study, we investigate forcing-induced skill by comparing the near-surface temperature skill of a multi-model ensemble of seasonal predictions from the Copernicus Climate Change Service archive to that of an uninitialised ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 projections for European summers (June–July–August) spanning the years 1993–2016. As expected, predictive skill over southern Europe is larger for initialised seasonal predictions compared to uninitialised climate projections. However, for northern Europe, we find that predictive skill is generally small in current seasonal models and surprisingly even smaller compared to uninitialised climate projections. These results imply that further research is necessary to understand the role of external forcing on seasonal temperature variations over Europe.