Reply to Comment on ‘Extreme weather events in early summer 2018 connected by a recurrent hemispheric wave-7 pattern’

Environmental Research Letters IOP Publishing 20:1 (2024) 018001-018001

Authors:

Kai Kornhuber, Dim Coumou, Stefan Petri, Scott Osprey, Stefan Rahmstorf

Abstract:

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Circumglobal teleconnections from wave-like patterns in the mid-latitude jets can lead to synchronized weather extremes in the mid-latitudes of Northern and Southern hemispheres. The simultaneous occurrence of record breaking and persistent northern hemisphere temperature anomalies in Summer 2018 were previously discussed in the context of a persistent zonally elongated wave-7 pattern that stretched over large parts of the northern hemisphere over an extended time and let to considerable societal impacts. Various diagnostics have been put forward to quantify and detect such wave patterns, many of which incorporate low-pass time filtering to separate signal from noise. In this response we argue that advancing our understanding of the large-scale circulation’s response to anthropogenic climate change and reducing associated uncertainties in future climate risk requires a diverse range of perspectives and diagnostics from both the climate and weather research communities.</jats:p>

Role of the quasi-biennial oscillation in alleviating biases in the semi-annual oscillation

Weather and Climate Dynamics Copernicus GmbH 5:4 (2024) 1489-1504

Authors:

Aleena M Jaison, Lesley J Gray, Scott M Osprey, Jeff R Knight, Martin B Andrews

Abstract:

<jats:p>Abstract. Model representations of the stratospheric semi-annual oscillation (SAO) show a common easterly bias, with a weaker westerly phase and stronger easterly phase compared to observations. Previous studies have shown that both resolved and parameterized tropical waves in the upper stratosphere are too weak. These waves propagate vertically through the underlying region dominated by the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) before reaching the SAO altitudes. The influence of biases in the modelled QBO on the representation of the SAO is therefore explored. Correcting the QBO biases helps to reduce the SAO easterly bias through improved filtering of resolved and parameterized waves that contribute to improving both the westerly and the easterly phases of the SAO. The time-averaged zonal-mean zonal winds at SAO altitudes change by up to 25 % in response to the QBO bias corrections. The annual cycle in the equatorial upper stratosphere is improved as well. Most of the improvements in the SAO occur during the QBO easterly phase, coinciding with the period when the model's QBO exhibits the largest bias. Nevertheless, despite correcting for the QBO bias, there remains a substantial easterly bias in the SAO, suggesting that westerly wave forcing in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere is still severely under-represented. </jats:p>

Forecasting for energy resilience

Weather (2024)

Authors:

Matthew Wright, Chris Bell, Ben Hutchins, Mark Rodwell, Emily Wallace

Magma Ocean Evolution at Arbitrary Redox State.

Journal of geophysical research. Planets 129:12 (2024) e2024JE008576

Authors:

Harrison Nicholls, Tim Lichtenberg, Dan J Bower, Raymond Pierrehumbert

Abstract:

Interactions between magma oceans and overlying atmospheres on young rocky planets leads to an evolving feedback of outgassing, greenhouse forcing, and mantle melt fraction. Previous studies have predominantly focused on the solidification of oxidized Earth-similar planets, but the diversity in mean density and irradiation observed in the low-mass exoplanet census motivate exploration of strongly varying geochemical scenarios. We aim to explore how variable redox properties alter the duration of magma ocean solidification, the equilibrium thermodynamic state, melt fraction of the mantle, and atmospheric composition. We develop a 1D coupled interior-atmosphere model that can simulate the time-evolution of lava planets. This is applied across a grid of fixed redox states, orbital separations, hydrogen endowments, and C/H ratios around a Sun-like star. The composition of these atmospheres is highly variable before and during solidification. The evolutionary path of an Earth-like planet at 1 AU ranges between permanent magma ocean states and solidification within 1 Myr. Recently solidified planets typically host H 2 O - or H 2 -dominated atmospheres in the absence of escape. Orbital separation is the primary factor determining magma ocean evolution, followed by the total hydrogen endowment, mantle oxygen fugacity, and finally the planet's C/H ratio. Collisional absorption by H 2 induces a greenhouse effect which can prevent or stall magma ocean solidification. Through this effect, as well as the outgassing of other volatiles, geochemical properties exert significant control over the fate of magma oceans on rocky planets.

Complementary approaches to characterize the jet stream dynamics in summer and link them to extreme weather in Europe

Copernicus Publications (2024)

Authors:

Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, Olivia Romppainen-Martius