The climate and compositional variation of the highly eccentric planet HD 80606 b – the rise and fall of carbon monoxide and elemental sulfur
Abstract:
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>The gas giant HD 80606 b has a highly eccentric orbit (e ∼ 0.93). The variation due to the rapid shift of stellar irradiation provides a unique opportunity to probe the physical and chemical timescales and to study the interplay between climate dynamics and atmospheric chemistry. In this work, we present integrated models to study the atmospheric responses and the underlying physical and chemical mechanisms of HD 80606 b. We first run three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) to establish the atmospheric thermal and dynamical structures for different atmospheric metallicities and internal heat. Based on the GCM output, we then adopted a 1D time-dependent photochemical model to investigate the compositional variation along the eccentric orbit. The transition of the circulation patterns of HD 80606 b matched the dynamics regimes in previous works. Our photochemical models show that efficient vertical mixing leads to deep quench levels of the major carbon and nitrogen species and the quenching behavior does not change throughout the eccentric orbit. Instead, photolysis is the main driver of the time-dependent chemistry. While CH4 dominates over CO through most of the orbits, a transient state of [CO]/[CH4] &gt; 1 after periastron is confirmed for all metallicity and internal heat cases. The upcoming JWST Cycle 1 GO program will be able to track this real-time CH4–CO conversion and infer the chemical timescale. Furthermore, sulfur species initiated by sudden heating and photochemical forcing exhibit both short-term and long-term cycles, opening an interesting avenue for detecting sulfur on exoplanets.</jats:p>Reconciling conflicting evidence for the cause of the observed early 21st century Eurasian cooling
Abstract:
It is now well established that the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than the global average. This warming, which has been accompanied by a dramatic decline in sea ice, has been linked to cooling over the Eurasian subcontinent over recent decades, most dramatically during the period 1998-2012. This is a counterintuitive impact under global warming given that land regions should warm more than ocean (and the global average). Some studies have proposed a causal teleconnection from Arctic sea ice retreat to Eurasian wintertime cooling; other studies argue that Eurasian cooling is mainly driven by internal variability and the relationship to sea ice is coincidental. Overall, there is an impression of strong disagreement between those holding the “ice-driven” versus “internal variability” viewpoints. Here, we offer an alternative framing showing that the sea ice and internal variability views can be compatible. Key to this is viewing Eurasian cooling through the lens of dynamics (linked primarily to internal variability with a small contribution from sea ice; cools Eurasia) and thermodynamics (linked to sea ice retreat; warms Eurasia). This approach, combined with recognition that there is uncertainty in the hypothesized mechanisms themselves, allow both viewpoints (and others) to co-exist and contribute to our understanding of Eurasian cooling. A simple autoregressive model shows that Eurasian cooling of this magnitude is consistent with internal variability, with some periods being more susceptible to strong cooling than others. Rather than posit a “yes-or-no” causal relationship between sea ice and Eurasian cooling, a more constructive way forward is to consider whether the cooling trend was more likely given the observed sea ice loss, as well as other sources of low-frequency variability. Taken in this way both sea ice and internal variability are factors that affect the likelihood of strong regional cooling in the presence of ongoing global warming.The role of Rossby waves in polar weather and climate
Abstract:
Recent Arctic warming has fuelled interest in the weather and climate of the polar regions and how this interacts with lower latitudes. Several interesting theories of polar-midlatitude linkages involve Rossby wave propagation as a key process even though the meridional gradient in planetary vorticity, crucial for these waves, is weak at high latitudes. Here we review some basic theory and suggest that Rossby waves can indeed explain some features of polar variability, especially when relative vorticity gradients are present.
We suggest that large-scale polar flow can be conceptualised as a mix of geostrophic turbulence and Rossby wave propagation, as in the midlatitudes, but with the balance tipped further in favour of turbulent flow. Hence, isolated vortices often dominate but some wavelike features remain. As an example, quasi-stationary or weakly westward-propagating subpolar anomalies emerge from statistical analysis of observed data, and these are consistent with some role for wave propagation. The noted persistence of polar cyclones and anticyclones is attributed in part to the weakened effects of wave dispersion, the mechanism responsible for the decay of midlatitude anomalies in downstream development. We also suggest that the vortex-dominated nature of polar dynamics encourages the emergence of annular mode structures in principal component analyses of extratropical circulation.
Finally, we consider how Rossby waves may be triggered from high latitudes. The linear mechanisms known to balance localised heating at lower latitudes are shown to be less efficient in the polar regions. Instead, we suggest the direct response to sea ice loss often manifests as a heat low, with radiative cooling balancing the heating. If the relative vorticity gradient is favourable this does have the potential to trigger a Rossby wave response, although this will often be weak compared to waves forced from lower latitudes.