Climate dynamics

Abstract:

This study reconciles two perspectives on wintertime atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic-European sector: the zonal-mean framework comprising three preferred locations of the eddy-driven jet (southern, central, northern), and the weather regime framework comprising four classical North Atlantic-European regimes (Atlantic ridge AR, zonal ZO, European/Scandinavian blocking BL, Greenland anticyclone GA). A k-means clustering algorithm is used to characterize the two-dimensional variability of the eddy-driven jet stream, defined by the lower tropospheric zonal wind in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The first three clusters capture the central jet and northern jet, along with a new mixed jet configuration; a fourth cluster is needed to recover the southern jet. The mixed cluster represents a split or strongly tilted jet, neither of which is well described in the zonal-mean framework, and has a persistence of about one week, similar to the other clusters. Connections between the preferred jet locations and weather regimes are corroborated – southern to GA, central to ZO, and northern to AR. In addition, the new mixed cluster is found to be linked to European/Scandinavian blocking, whose relation to the eddy-driven jet was previously unclear.

Abstract:

Statistical models of climate generally regard climate variability as anomalies about a climatological seasonal cycle, which are treated as a stationary stochastic process plus a long-term seasonally dependent trend. However, the climate system has deterministic aspects apart from the climatological seasonal cycle and long-term trends, and the assumption of stationary statistics is only an approximation. The variability of the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation in the period encompassing late spring and summer is an important climate phenomenon and has been the subject of numerous studies. It is shown here, using re-analysis data, that this variability is rendered highly non-stationary by the organizing influence of the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, which breaks time symmetry. It is argued that the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation variability during this period is best viewed as interannual variability in the transition between the springtime and summertime regimes induced by variability in the vortex breakdown. In particular, the apparent long-term poleward jet shift during the early-summer season can be more simply understood as a delay in the equatorward shift associated with this regime transition. The implications of such a perspective for various open questions are discussed.