Climate dynamics

Abstract:

The Paris Agreement1 aims to ‘pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.’ However, it has been suggested that temperature targets alone are unable to limit the risks associated with anthropogenic emissions2, 3. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations, we show that atmospheric CO2 increase - a more predictable consequence of emissions compared to global temperature increase - has a significant impact on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature, heat stress, and tropical precipitation extremes. Hence in an iterative climate mitigation regime aiming solely for a specific temperature goal, an unexpectedly low climate response may have corresponding ‘dangerous’ changes in extreme events. The direct impact of higher CO2 concentrations on climate extremes therefore substantially reduces the upper bound of the carbon budget, and highlights the need to explicitly limit atmospheric CO2 concentration when formulating allowable emissions. Thus, complementing global mean temperature goals with explicit limits on atmospheric CO2 concentrations in future climate policy would reduce the adverse effects of high-impact weather extremes.

Abstract:

The influence of tropical precipitation variability on summertime seasonal circulation anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector is investigated. The dominant mode of the maximum covariance analysis (MCA) between the Euro-Atlantic circulation and tropical precipitation reveals a cyclonic anomaly over the extratropical North Atlantic, contributing to anomalously wet conditions over western Europe and dry conditions over eastern Europe and Scandinavia (in the positive phase). The related mode of tropical precipitation variability is associated with tropical Pacific SST anomalies and is closely linked to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The second MCA mode consists of weaker tropical precipitation anomalies but a stronger extratropical signal which reflects internal atmospheric variability. The teleconnection mechanism is tested in barotropic model simulations, which indicate that the observed link between the dominant mode of tropical precipitation and the Euro-Atlantic circulation anomalies is largely consistent with linear Rossby wave dynamics. The barotropic model response consists of a circumglobal wave-train in the extratropics that is primarily forced by divergence anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. Both the eastward and westward group propagation of the Rossby waves are found to be important in determining the circulation response over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The mechanism was also analysed in an operational seasonal forecasting system, ECMWF’s System 4. Whilst System 4 is well able to reproduce and skillfully forecast the tropical precipitation, the extratropical circulation response is absent over the Euro-Atlantic region, which is likely related to biases in the Asian jetstream.

Abstract:

Previous studies of haze formation in the atmosphere of the early Earth have focused on N2/CO2/CH4 atmospheres. Here, we experimentally investigate the effect of O2 on the formation and composition of aerosols to improve our understanding of haze formation on the Neoproterozoic Earth. We obtained in situ size, particle density, and composition measurements of aerosol particles produced from N2/CO2/CH4/O2 gas mixtures subjected to FUV radiation (115–400 nm) for a range of initial CO2/CH4/O2 mixing ratios (O2 ranging from 2 ppm to 0.2%). At the lowest O2 concentration (2 ppm), the addition increased particle production for all but one gas mixture. At higher oxygen concentrations (20 ppm and greater), particles are still produced, but the addition of O2 decreases the production rate. Both the particle size and number density decrease with increasing O2, indicating that O2 affects particle nucleation and growth. The particle density increases with increasing O2. The addition of CO2 and O2 not only increases the amount of oxygen in the aerosol, but it also increases the degree of nitrogen incorporation. In particular, the addition of O2 results in the formation of nitrate-bearing molecules. The fact that the presence of oxygen-bearing molecules increases the efficiency of nitrogen fixation has implications for the role of haze as a source of molecules required for the origin and evolution of life. The composition changes also likely affect the absorption and scattering behavior of these particles but optical property measurements are required to fully understand the implications for the effect on the planetary radiative energy balance and climate.

Abstract:

The response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to an imposed mean upwelling with a periodic modulation is studied, by modelling the dynamics of the zero wind line at the equator using a class of equations known as ‘descent rate’ models. These are simple mathematical models that capture the essence of QBO synchronization by focusing on the dynamics of the height of the zero wind line. A heuristic descent rate model for the zero wind line is described, and is shown to capture many of the synchronization features seen in previous studies of the QBO. Using a simple transformation, it is then demonstrated that the standard Holton-Lindzen model of the QBO can itself be put into the form of a descent rate model if a quadratic velocity profile is assumed below the zero wind line. The resulting non-autonomous ordinary differential equation captures much of the synchronization behaviour observed in the full Holton-Lindzen partial differential equation. The new class of models provides a novel framework within which to understand synchronization of the QBO, and we demonstrate a close relationship between these models and the circle map well-known in the mathematics literature. Finally, we analyse reanalysis datasets to validate some of the predictions of our descent rate models, and find statistically significant evidence for synchronization of the QBO that is consistent with model behaviour.