Climate processes

Abstract:

Abstract. Aerosol effects on cloud properties and the atmospheric energy and radiation budgets are studied through ensemble simulations over two month-long periods during the NARVAL campaigns (Next-generation Aircraft Remote-Sensing for Validation Studies, December 2013 and August 2016). For each day, two simulations are conducted with low and high cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNCs), representing low and high aerosol concentrations, respectively. This large data set, which is based on a large spread of co-varying realistic initial conditions, enables robust identification of the effect of CDNC changes on cloud properties. We show that increases in CDNC drive a reduction in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) net shortwave flux (more reflection) and a decrease in the lower-tropospheric stability for all cases examined, while the TOA longwave flux and the liquid and ice water path changes are generally positive. However, changes in cloud fraction or precipitation, that could appear significant for a given day, are not as robustly affected, and, at least for the summer month, are not statistically distinguishable from zero. These results highlight the need for using a large sample of initial conditions for cloud–aerosol studies for identifying the significance of the response. In addition, we demonstrate the dependence of the aerosol effects on the season, as it is shown that the TOA net radiative effect is doubled during the winter month as compared to the summer month. By separating the simulations into different dominant cloud regimes, we show that the difference between the different months emerges due to the compensation of the longwave effect induced by an increase in ice content as compared to the shortwave effect of the liquid clouds. The CDNC effect on the longwave flux is stronger in the summer as the clouds are deeper and the atmosphere is more unstable.

Abstract:

The uncertainty in present-day anthropogenic forcing is dominated by uncertainty in the strength of the contribution from aerosol. Much of the uncertainty in the direct aerosol forcing can be attributed to uncertainty in the anthropogenic fraction of aerosol in the present-day atmosphere, due to a lack of historical observations. Here we present a robust relationship between total present-day aerosol optical depth and the anthropogenic contribution across three multi-model ensembles and a large single-model perturbed parameter ensemble. Using observations of aerosol optical depth, we determine a reduced likely range of the anthropogenic component and hence a reduced uncertainty in the direct forcing of aerosol.

Abstract:

Abstract. The atmospheric energy budget is analysed in numerical simulations of tropical cloud systems to better understand the physical processes behind aerosol effects on the atmospheric energy budget. The simulations include both shallow convective clouds and deep convective tropical clouds over the Atlantic Ocean. Two different sets of simulations, at different dates (10–12 and 16–18 August 2016), are simulated with different dominant cloud modes (shallow or deep). For each case, the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is varied as a proxy for changes in aerosol concentrations without considering the temporal evolution of the aerosol concentration (for example due to wet scavenging, which may be more important under deep convective conditions). It is shown that the total column atmospheric radiative cooling is substantially reduced with CDNC in the deep-cloud-dominated case (by ∼10.0 W m−2), while a much smaller reduction (∼1.6 W m−2) is shown in the shallow-cloud-dominated case. This trend is caused by an increase in the ice and water vapour content at the upper troposphere that leads to a reduced outgoing longwave radiation, an effect which is stronger under deep-cloud-dominated conditions. A decrease in sensible heat flux (driven by an increase in the near-surface air temperature) reduces the warming by ∼1.4 W m−2 in both cases. It is also shown that the cloud fraction response behaves in opposite ways to an increase in CDNC, showing an increase in the deep-cloud-dominated case and a decrease in the shallow-cloud-dominated case. This demonstrates that under different environmental conditions the response to aerosol perturbation could be different.

Abstract:

<jats:p>Abstract. The interactions between aerosols and convective clouds represent some of the greatest uncertainties in the climate impact of aerosols in the atmosphere. A wide variety of mechanisms have been proposed by which aerosols may invigorate, suppress or change the properties of individual convective clouds, some of which can be reproduced in high-resolution limited-area models. However, there may also be mesoscale, regional or global adjustments which modulate or dampen such impacts which cannot be captured in the limited domain of such models. The Convective Cloud Field Model (CCFM) provides a mechanism to simulate a population of convective clouds, complete with microphysics and interactions between clouds, within each grid column at resolutions used for global climate modelling, so that a representation of the microphysical aerosol response within each parameterised cloud type is possible. Using CCFM within the global aerosol–climate model ECHAM–HAM, we demonstrate how the parameterised cloud field responds to the present-day anthropogenic aerosol perturbation in different regions. In particular, we show that in regions with strongly forced deep convection and/or significant aerosol effects via large-scale processes, the changes in the convective cloud field due to microphysical effects are rather small; however in a more weakly forced regime such as the Caribbean, where large-scale aerosol effects are small, a signature of convective invigoration does become apparent. </jats:p>