Exoplanets and Stellar Physics

Abstract:

A method for simulating light curves containing stellar micro-variability for a range of spectral types and ages is presented. It is based on parameter-by-parameter scaling of a multi-component fit to the solar irradiance power spectrum (based on VIRGO/PMO6 data), and scaling laws derived from ground based observations of various stellar samples. A correlation is observed in the Sun between the amplitude of the power spectrum on long (weeks) timescales and the BBSO Call K-line index of chromospheric activity. On the basis of this evidence, the chromospheric activity level, predicted from rotation period and B - V colour estimates according to the relationship first introduced by Noyes (1983) and Noyes et al. (1984), is used to predict the variability power on weeks time scale. The rotation period is estimated on the basis of a fit to the distribution of rotation period versus B - V observed in the Hyades and the Skumanich (1972) spin-down law. The characteristic timescale of the variability is also scaled according to the rotation period. This model is used to estimate the impact of the target star spectral type and age on the detection capability of space based transit searches such as Eddington and Kepler. K stars are found to be the most promising targets, while the performance drops significantly for stars earlier than G and younger than 2.0 Gyr. Simulations also show that Eddington should detect terrestrial planets orbiting solar-age stars in most of the habitable zone for G2 types and all of it for K0 and K5 types.

Abstract:

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.