Extending the Frontier of Spatially-Resolved Supermassive Black Hole Mass Measurements to at 1 ≲ z ≲ 2: Simulations with ELT/MICADO High-Resolution Mass Models and HARMONI Integral-Field Stellar Kinematics

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (2026) stag238

Authors:

Dieu D Nguyen, Michele Cappellari, Tinh QT Le, Hai N Ngo, Elena Gallo, Niranjan Thatte, Fan Zou, Tien HT Ho, Tuan N Le, Huy G Tong, Miguel Pereira-Santaella

Abstract:

Current spatially resolved kinematic measurements of supermassive black hole (SMBH) masses are largely confined to the local Universe (distances ≲ 100 Mpc). We investigate the potential of the Extremely Large Telescope’s (ELT) first-light instruments, MICADO and HARMONI, to extend these dynamical measurements to galaxies at redshift 1 ≲ z ≲ 2. We select a sample of five bright, massive, quiescent galaxies at these redshifts, adopting their Sérsic profiles, from HST photometry, as their intrinsic surface brightness distributions. Based on these intrinsic models, we generate mock MICADO images using SimCADO and mock HARMONI integral-field spectroscopic data cubes using hsim. The HARMONI simulations utilize input stellar kinematics derived from Jeans Anisotropic Models (JAM). We then process these mock observations: the simulated MICADO images are fitted with Multi-Gaussian Expansion (MGE) to derive stellar mass models, and stellar kinematics are extracted from mock HARMONI cubes with pPXF. Finally, these derived stellar mass models and kinematics are used to constrain JAM dynamical models within a Bayesian framework. Our analysis demonstrates that SMBH masses can be recovered with an accuracy of ∼10 %. We find that MICADO can provide detailed stellar mass models with ∼1 hour of on-source exposure. HARMONI requires longer minimum integrations for reliable stellar kinematic measurements of SMBHs. The required on-source time scales with apparent brightness, ranging from 5–7.5 hours for galaxies at z ≈ 1 (F814W, 20–20.5 mag) to 5 hours for galaxies at 1 < z ≲ 2 (F160W, 20.8 mag). These findings highlight the ELT’s capability to push the frontier of SMBH mass measurements to z ≈ 2, enabling crucial tests of SMBH-galaxy co-evolution at the top end of the galaxies mass function.

Atmospheric characterization of HIP 67522 b with VLT/CRIRES+. VLT/CRIRES+ suggests a heavier planet and hints at deuterium fractionation

(2026)

Authors:

A Lavail, F Debras, B Klein, E Chabrol, S Vinatier, T Hood, A Masson, JV Seidel, C Moutou, S Aigrain, A Meech, O Barragán

Diurnal Variability Modulates Episodic Convection in Hothouse Climates Over Ocean and Swamp‐Like Surface Conditions

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems American Geophysical Union (AGU) 18:2 (2026) e2025MS004992

Authors:

Namrah Habib, Guy Dagan, Nathan Steiger

Abstract:

Abstract Hot and moist “hothouse” climates occurred in Earth's past and are expected in Earth's far future climate, driven by increasing solar luminosity. In hothouse climate regimes, precipitation transitions from a quasi‐steady state, as in present‐day tropical convection, to an “episodic deluge” or relaxation‐oscillator (RO) regime where precipitation occurs in intense bursts separated by multi‐day dry spells. Recent studies suggest that the transition to RO convection regimes is radiatively driven. However, the transition from steady state to RO convection has only been studied with radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations with constant insolation, excluding the diurnal cycle. Precipitation and convection are strongly linked to the diurnal cycle in Earth's present climate over both land and ocean. We explore the impact of the diurnal cycle on the transition from steady state to RO convection using two sets of small‐domain RCE simulations with ocean and swamp‐like surface boundary conditions. Our RCE simulations with ocean boundary conditions show convection transitions to an episodic deluge regime at 322 K and the diurnal cycle modulates precipitation to occur during late‐night or near dawn, when convective inhibition is the weakest. Our RCE simulations with swamp‐like boundary conditions, which allow for mean surface temperature variations, show that as RO states emerge, the diurnal cycle modulates precipitation to primarily occur during the late‐afternoon to about dusk; but as the mean SST increases, precipitation occurs during the late‐night to dawn. These results show that the diurnal cycle strongly influences the timing of convection and precipitation patterns in extreme climates.

Mass estimates of the young TOI-451 transiting planets: Multidimensional Gaussian Process on stellar spectroscopic and photometric signals

(2026)

Authors:

Oscar Barragán, Manuel Mallorquín, Jorge Fernández-Fernández, Faith Hawthorn, Alix V Freckelton, Marina Lafarga, Michael Cretignier, Yoshi NE Eschen, Samuel Gill, Víctor JS Béjar, Nicolas Lodieu, Haochuan Yu, Thomas G Wilson, David Anderson, Ioannis Apergis, Matthew Battley, Edward M Bryant, Pía Cortés-Zuleta, Edward Gillen, James S Jenkins, Baptiste Klein, James McCormac, Annabella Meech, Erik Meier-Valdés, Maximiliano Moyano, Annelies Mortier, Felipe Murgas, Louise D Nielsen, Suman Saha, Josà I Vines, Richard West, Peter J Wheatley, Suzanne Aigrain

Exoplanet Atmospheres at High Spectral Resolution

Chapter in Handbook of Exoplanets, Springer Nature (2026) 1-38

Abstract:

The spectrum of an exoplanet reveals the physical, chemical, and biological processes that have shaped its history and govern its future. However, observations of exoplanet spectra are complicated by the overwhelming glare of their host stars. Here, we focus on high-resolution spectroscopy (HRS) (R∼5,000−140,000$$R\,{\sim }\,5{,}000-140{,}000$$), which helps disentangle and isolate the exoplanet’s spectrum. HRS resolves molecular features into a dense forest of individual lines in a pattern that is unique for a given molecule. For close-in planets, the spectral lines undergo large Doppler shifts during the planet’s orbit, while the host star and Earth’s spectral features remain essentially stationary, enabling a velocity separation of the planet. For slower-moving, wide-orbit planets, HRS, aided by high contrast imaging, instead isolates their spectra using their spatial separation (high contrast spectroscopy; HCS). The planet’s spectral lines are compared with HRS model atmospheric spectra, typically using cross-correlation to sum their signals. It is essentially a form of fingerprinting for exoplanet atmospheres and works for both transiting and non-transiting planets. It measures their orbital velocity, true mass, and simultaneously characterizes their atmosphere. The unique sensitivity of HRS to the depth, shape, and position of the planet’s spectral lines allows it to measure atmospheric composition, structure, clouds, and dynamics, including day-to-night winds and equatorial jets, plus its rotation period and even its magnetic field. These are extracted using statistically robust log-likelihood frameworks and match space-based instruments in their precision. This chapter describes the HRS technique in detail and concludes with future prospects with Extremely Large Telescopes to identify biosignatures on nearby rocky worlds and map features in the atmospheres of giant exoplanets.