A Hierarchical Modeling Study of Absorbing Aerosol Impacts on Precipitation Characteristics and Extremes

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems American Geophysical Union (AGU) 18:6 (2026) e2025MS005400

Authors:

T Sreelekshmi, Jacob Shpund, Namrah Habib, Guy Dagan

Abstract:

Abstract The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the mean, spatial, and temporal distribution of precipitation remains a persistent source of uncertainty in climate research. In particular, absorbing aerosols are known to influence cloud formation and precipitation in ways that are not yet fully understood. On average, warming induced by absorbing aerosols is balanced by reduced latent heating from precipitation, so the atmospheric energy budget constrains mean precipitation. This constraint does not apply to spatial or temporal patterns, making the impact of absorbing aerosols on these aspects more uncertain. A recent idealized study suggests that absorbing aerosols can trigger a transition to episodic precipitation, where rainfall occurs in intense, short‐lived events followed by extended dry periods. This transition resembles a previously reported shift under hothouse climate conditions. Specifically, lower tropospheric radiative heating from absorbing aerosols decouples the lower and upper troposphere, suppressing convection for multiple days. During these dry periods, instability builds up until a strong rain event occurs. In this paper, we build on this previous work to further investigate the effects of absorbing aerosols on precipitation characteristics and extremes. We conduct a hierarchy of model simulations that incorporate online aerosol–radiation coupling, the diurnal cycle of solar radiation, convective aggregation in a large‐domain, and large‐scale tropical circulation in a mock Walker simulation. Our results show that the transition to episodic precipitation events under absorbing aerosol perturbation is robust and occurs across all model configurations. We also examine the role of diurnal solar radiation variations and large‐scale circulation in shaping this transition.

Atmospheric characterisation of HIP 67522 b with VLT/CRIRES+

Astronomy & Astrophysics EDP Sciences 710 (2026) A85-A85

Authors:

A Lavail, F Debras, B Klein, E Chabrol, S Vinatier, T Hood, A Masson, JV Seidel, C Moutou, S Aigrain, A Meech, O Barragán

Abstract:

Context . Young transiting exoplanets provide unique opportunities to probe planetary atmospheres during critical early phases of evolution when atmospheric escape and contraction are most active. HIP 67522 b, a 17 Myr old hot Jupiter with an extraordinarily low bulk density (<0.20 g cm −3 ), represents an ideal target for high-resolution transmission spectroscopy. Aims . We aim to constrain the mass and characterise the atmospheric composition, thermal structure, and dynamics of HIP 67522 b using ground-based high-resolution near-infrared spectroscopy with VLT/CRIRES+, complementing recent JWST observations. Methods . We obtained 92 high-resolution spectra ( R ≈ 10 5 ) with VLT/CRIRES+ in the K2166 band during a transit on 30 January 2025. We applied cross-correlation techniques and Bayesian nested sampling retrievals to constrain molecular abundances, temperature structure, and atmospheric dynamics. Results . We detected H 2 O at 20σ and CO at 5σ, confirming the extremely extended atmosphere of this low-mass giant. A velocity offset of −2.9 ± 0.2 km s −1 indicates day-to-night winds. The rotation velocity has been constrained to <1.8 km s −1 at 3σ, consistent with tidal locking. The retrieval analysis suggests a planetary mass of 27.7 −5.5 +5.9 Earth masses and statistically favours a two-temperature atmospheric structure with a discrete change at mbar pressures over an isothermal profile. This mass is twice as high as the mass estimated from JWST atmospheric observations and inconsistent at 3 σ , casting doubt on the actual planetary density of the planet. No matter the choice of atmospheric model, we derived a supersolar C/O ratio that is about 1.5 times solar, along with a supersolar metallicity that might further increase if the atmosphere is cloudy, which is a degeneracy that our data alone cannot resolve. We report a tentative 2 σ detection of HDO with an extreme enrichment factor of ∼1000 relative to the protosolar D/H ratio. If confirmed, this would be the first detection of deuterium in an exoplanet atmosphere and would require an intense escape rate to confirm its presence.

The Supermassive Black Hole in the Nearby Spiral Galaxy M81: A Robust Mass from JWST/NIRSpec Stellar Dynamics

The Astrophysical Journal American Astronomical Society 1003:1 (2026) 98

Authors:

Dieu D Nguyen, Tuan N Le, Michele Cappellari, Hai N Ngo, Tinh QT Le, Tien HT Ho, Long QT Nguyen, Elena Gallo, Fan Zou, Michele Perna, Niranjan Thatte, Miguel Pereira-Santaella

Abstract:

Despite its proximity, the mass of the supermassive black hole (SMBH) in the spiral galaxy M81 (NGC 3031) has remained a subject of discussion, with doubts previously cast on the reliability of available dynamical measurements. We present the first robust stellar-dynamics measurement of its mass using high-resolution, two-dimensional kinematics from JWST/NIRSpec observations of the central 3″ × 3″. By tracing stellar motions in the near-infrared, our data penetrate the obscuring nuclear dust and allow for the separation of stellar light from the nonthermal AGN continuum. We modeled the kinematics using the Jeans anisotropic modelling method. Rather than relying on a standard Bayesian approach for error estimation, we constructed a suite of 24 independent models, each employing a unique combination of different physical assumptions regarding stellar mass-to-light (M/L) ratio gradients, the point-spread function, the masking of the central active galactic nucleus, and the orientation of the velocity ellipsoid. This ensemble approach allows us to robustly account for the impact of systematic uncertainties. To estimate our systematic uncertainties, we performed a bootstrap of the MBH values derived from these 24 models, thereby incorporating the variance between different physical assumptions. Our analysis yields a precise SMBH mass of MBH = (4.77 ± 0.37) × 107 M⊙ (1σ confidence, including systematic and statistical uncertainties). This result is consistent with previous determinations within their uncertainties, while providing a crucial and highly reliable anchor point for SMBH–galaxy scaling relations in spiral galaxies.

Mid‐Infrared Compositional Spectral Parameters for the Lunar Thermal Mapper Instrument Onboard Lunar Trailblazer

Earth and Space Science 13:5 (2026)

Authors:

Katherine A Shirley, Kerri L Donaldson Hanna, Neil E Bowles, Namrah Habib, Nicholas Elkington, Rory Evans, Christopher S Edwards, Tristram Warren, Fiona Henderson, Christopher Haberle, Rachel L Klima, Bethany L Ehlmann

Abstract:

The Lunar Trailblazer mission launched in February of 2025 with the goal of characterizing lunar surface water through a targeted campaign. One instrument on the mission, the Lunar Thermal Mapper (LTM), was tasked with measuring the surface temperature to compare with maps of the form and abundance of water on the lunar surface. LTM's secondary science goals were to identify regolith composition and thermophysical properties as exhibited by mid‐infrared spectral features. Here we show the utility of LTM in distinguishing lunar regolith composition with its 11 narrow bands. Five spectral parameter products were developed to aid in early identification of regions of interest for follow‐on spectral analyses. These products include the Christiansen feature (CF) value, weighted absorption center (WAC) value, WAC band depth, Transparency Roll‐off, and a Diviner CF value equivalent. These products would be used mainly to flag these regions for more detailed follow‐up study with the entire spectral capabilities of the mission instrumentation. The Lunar Thermal Mapper (LTM) is one of two instruments on the Lunar Trailblazer mission launched in February 2025. LTM's primary goal is to provide surface temperature measurements for the lunar surface, in particular for identifying and mapping water on the Moon. LTM is also capable of identifying the compositional and physical properties of different rocks on the surface. Here, we test those capabilities and determine five methods for quickly distinguishing bulk properties of the lunar rocks that can be used by the community to identify regions of interest for further investigation. Mid‐infrared compositional parameters were created and tested for the Lunar Trailblazer mission Spectral parameters can distinguish bulk silicate mineralogy, and identify regions of compositional interest The Christiansen feature roll‐off parameter can provide an initial identification of areas with distinct thermophysical properties Mid‐infrared compositional parameters were created and tested for the Lunar Trailblazer mission Spectral parameters can distinguish bulk silicate mineralogy, and identify regions of compositional interest The Christiansen feature roll‐off parameter can provide an initial identification of areas with distinct thermophysical properties

The Lunar Trailblazer Lunar Thermal Mapper Instrument

Journal of Geophysical Research Planets American Geophysical Union (AGU) 131:5 (2026)

Authors:

Neil E Bowles, Bethany L Ehlmann, Rory Evans, Tristram J Warren, Henry H Eshbaugh, Greg King, Waqas Mir, Namrah Habib, Katherine Shirley, Fraser Clarke, Cyril Bourgenot, Chris Howe, Keith Nowicki, Fiona HM Henderson, Christopher S Edwards, Rachel L Klima, Kerri Donaldson Hanna, Calina C Seybold, Andrew T Klesh, David R Thompson, Elise Furlan, Elena Scire, Judy S Adler, Nicholas Elkington, Aria Vitkova, Jon Temple, Simon Woodward

Abstract:

Abstract The Lunar Thermal Mapper (LTM) instrument is a UK Space Agency funded infrared radiometer designed and built for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lunar Trailblazer mission launched in February 2025. LTM is a pushbroom imaging filter radiometer with 15 channels that cover the wavelength range from 6.25 to 100 μm with a 40–70 m/pixel ground sampling. Lunar Trailblazer's mission is to understand the form, abundance and distribution of water across the lunar surface. LTM provides an independent measure of temperature to investigate thermal effects on water's mapped distribution as well as an independent measure of surface mineralogy. The LTM instrument's 15 infrared channels include four broadband temperature sensing channels (6.25–12.5, 12.5–25, 25–50 and 50–100 μm) plus 11 additional narrow band (∼40 cm −1 ) filters from ∼7–10 μm to map and discriminate silicate composition. We review the LTM design and calibration campaign at the University of Oxford's Space Instrumentation facility and show that the instrument has sensitivity from 400 K with a Noise Equivalent Temperature Difference of <0.1 K to <1 K at 110 K for typical integration times (e.g., 30 Hz readout) from a nominal 70–130 km lunar orbit design altitude. Plain Language Summary This paper describes the Lunar Thermal Mapper instrument for NASA's Lunar Trailblazer mission. Lunar Thermal Mapper is a thermal imaging system designed to sense the temperature and composition of the lunar surface using the thermal infrared. By sensing the temperature environment of the Moon, Lunar Thermal Mapper supports the Trailblazer's mission to map water on the lunar surface. Key Points The Lunar Thermal Mapper (LTM) instrument will measure thermal infrared radiation from the Moon across from 400 K to <110 K The LTM instrument completed assembly, testing, calibration and integration on the Lunar Trailblazer spacecraft The LTM instrument demonstrated sensitives of <0.1 K at 400 K and <1 K at 110 K during ground testing and calibration