Hintze Centre for Astrophysical Surveys

Abstract:

We present a simulation of the time-domain catalog for the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope’s High-Latitude Time-Domain Core Community Survey. This simulation, called the Hourglass simulation, uses the most up-to-date spectral energy distribution models and rate measurements for 10 extragalactic time-domain sources. We simulate these models through the design reference Roman Space Telescope survey: four filters per tier, a five-day cadence, over 2 yr, a wide tier of 19 deg2, and a deep tier of 4.2 deg2, with ∼20% of those areas also covered with prism observations. We find that a science-independent Roman time-domain catalog, assuming a signal-to-noise ratio at a max of >5, would have approximately 21,000 Type Ia supernovae, 40,000 core-collapse supernovae, around 70 superluminous supernovae, ∼35 tidal disruption events, three kilonovae, and possibly pair-instability supernovae. In total, Hourglass has over 64,000 transient objects, 11,000,000 photometric observations, and 500,000 spectra. Additionally, Hourglass is a useful data set to train machine learning classification algorithms. We show that SCONE is able to photometrically classify Type Ia supernovae with high precision (∼95%) to a z > 2. Finally, we present the first realistic simulations of non-Type Ia supernovae spectral time series data from Roman’s prism.

Abstract:

We present a molecular gas dynamical supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass measurement in the nearby barred lenticular galaxy NGC 1574, using Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter Array observations of the CO(2-1) emission line with synthesized beam full-widths at half-maximum of ( pc). The observations are the first to spatially resolve the SMBH’s sphere of influence (SoI), resulting in an unambiguous detection of the Keplerian velocity increase due to the SMBH towards the centre of the gas disc. We also detect a previously known large-scale kinematic twist of the CO velocity map, due to a position angle (PA) warp and possible mild non-circular motions, and we resolve a PA warp within the central of the galaxy, larger than that inferred from previous intermediate-resolution data. By forward modelling the data cube, we infer a SMBH mass of M ( confidence interval), slightly smaller than but statistically consistent with the SMBH mass derived from the previous intermediate-resolution data that did not resolve the SoI, and slightly outside the scatter of the SMBH mass–stellar velocity dispersion relation. Our measurement thus emphasizes the importance of observations that spatially resolve the SMBH SoI for accurate SMBH mass measurements and gas dynamical modelling.

Abstract:

Recent cosmological analyses measuring distances of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) have all given similar hints at time-evolving dark energy. To examine whether underestimated SN Ia systematics might be driving these results, Efstathiou (2025) compared overlapping SN events between Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR (20 per cent SNe are in common), and reported evidence for an 0.04 mag offset between the low- and high-redshift distance measurements of this subsample of events. If this offset is arbitrarily subtracted from the entire DES-SN5YR sample, the preference for evolving dark energy is reduced. In this paper, we show that this offset is mostly due to different corrections for Malmquist bias between the two samples; therefore, an object-to-object comparison can be misleading. Malmquist bias corrections differ between the two analyses for several reasons. First, DES-SN5YR used an improved model of SN Ia luminosity scatter compared to Pantheon+ but the associated scatter-model uncertainties are included in the error budget. Secondly, improvements in host mass estimates in DES-SN5YR also affected SN standardized magnitudes and their bias corrections. Thirdly, and most importantly, the selection functions of the two compilations are significantly different, hence the inferred Malmquist bias corrections. Even if the original scatter model and host properties from Pantheon+ are used instead, the evidence for evolving dark energy from CMB, DESI BAO Year 1 and DES-SN5YR is only reduced from 3.9 to 3.3, consistent with the error budget. Finally, in this investigation, we identify an underestimated systematic uncertainty related to host galaxy property uncertainties, which could increase the final DES-SN5YR error budget by 3 per cent. In conclusion, we confirm the validity of the published DES-SN5YR results.