Planetary Climate Dynamics

Abstract:

Over the past two decades, increasingly precise observations have revealed that exoplanet atmospheres are chemically diverse and often far from equilibrium, with processes such as vertical mixing, photochemistry, and atmospheric circulation producing significant departures from thermochemical expectations. As large surveys across a wide range of planets begin to uncover population-level chemical trends, a coherent interpretation of these patterns remains elusive, particularly for gas giants and Neptune-like planets where disequilibrium processes likely dominate. The ESA Ariel mission will provide the first homogeneous, statistically significant atmospheric data set for nearly a thousand exoplanets, offering an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the origins of chemical diversity across planetary populations. This white paper highlights central scientific questions for understanding atmospheric chemistry and recognized as priorities for the community. These questions span the mechanisms driving disequilibrium chemistry, the role of sulfur- and phosphorus-bearing species, the influence of stellar activity, the formation of haze precursors, and the chemical evolution of atmospheres around stars of different ages and types. Because these topics connect chemistry, physics, and planetary evolution, they form the core focus of the Ariel Chemistry Working Group, which synthesizes current knowledge and identifies the diagnostics best addressed by Ariel’s spectral capabilities. For each theme, we outline observational strategies and representative targets already included in the Mission Candidate Sample, illustrating Ariel’s ability to address these questions. By linking large-scale observations to predictive atmospheric models, this work supports refinement of Ariel’s target selection and enables population-level studies that will transform our understanding of planetary atmospheres.

Abstract:

Vertical mixing disrupts the thermochemical equilibrium and introduces additional heat flux that alters exoplanetary atmospheric temperatures. We investigate how this mixing-induced heat flux affects atmospheric chemistry. Temperature increase in the lower atmosphere by the mixing-induced heat flux alters species abundances there and modifies those in the upper atmosphere through vertical transport. In the lower atmosphere, most species follow thermodynamic equilibrium with temperature changes. In the upper layers, species mixing ratios depend on the positions of quenching levels relative to the regions exhibiting significant mixing-induced temperature variations. When the quenching level resides within such a region (e.g., CO, CH4, and H2O with strong mixing), the mixing ratios in the upper atmosphere are modified due to changes in the quenched ratios affected by the temperature variation in the lower atmosphere. This alters the mixing ratio of other species (e.g., NO and CO2) through the chemical reaction network, whose quenching occurs in the region without much temperature change. The mixing ratios of CH4, H2O, and NH3 decrease in the lower atmosphere with increasing mixing heat flux, similarly reducing these ratios in the upper atmosphere. Conversely, the mixing ratios of CO, CO2, and NO rise in the lower atmosphere, with CO and CO2 also increasing in the upper levels, although NO decreases. Weaker host star irradiation lowers the overall temperature of the planet, allowing a smaller mixing to have a similar effect. We conclude that understanding the vertical mixing heat flux is essential for accurate atmospheric chemistry modeling and retrieval.

Abstract:

Recent transit observations of K2-18 b and TOI-270 d revealed strong molecular absorption signatures, lending credence to the idea that temperate sub-Neptunes (equilibrium temperature Teq = 250–400 K) have upper atmospheres mostly free of aerosols. These observations also indicated higher-than-expected CO2 abundances on both planets, implying bulk compositions with high water mass fractions. However, it remains unclear whether these findings hold true for all temperate sub-Neptunes. Here we present the JWST NIRSpec/PRISM 0.7–5.4-μm transmission spectrum of a third temperate sub-Neptune, the 2.4 R⊕ planet LP 791-18 c (Teq = 355 K), which is even more favourable for atmospheric characterization thanks to its small M6 host star. Intriguingly, despite the radius, mass and equilibrium temperature of LP 791-18 c being between those of K2-18 b and TOI-270 d, we find a drastically different transmission spectrum. Although we also detect methane on LP 791-18 c, its transit spectrum is dominated by strong haze scattering and there is no discernible CO2 absorption. Overall, we infer a deep metal-enriched atmosphere (246–415 times solar) for LP 791-18 c, with a CO2-to-CH4 ratio smaller than 0.07 (at 2σ), indicating less H2O in the deep envelope of LP 791-18 c and implying a relatively dry formation inside the water-ice line. These results show that sub-Neptunes that are near analogues in density and temperature can show drastically different aerosols and envelope chemistry and are intrinsically diverse beyond a simple temperature dependence.

Abstract:

Determining the prevalence of atmospheres on terrestrial planets is a core objective in exoplanetary science. While M dwarf systems offer a promising opportunity, conclusive observations of terrestrial atmospheres have remained elusive, with many yielding flat transmission spectra. We observe four transits of the hot terrestrial planet TOI-1685 b using James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)’s Near Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec) G395H instrument. Combining this with the transit from the previously observed phase curve of the planet with the same instrument, we perform a detailed analysis to determine the possibility of an atmosphere on TOI-1685 b. From our retrievals, the Bayesian evidence favours a simple flat line model, indicating no evidence for an atmosphere on TOI-1685 b, in line with results from the phase curve analysis. Our results show that hydrogen-dominated atmospheres can be confidently ruled out. For heavier, secondary atmospheres we find a lower limit on the mean molecular weight of , at a significance of ~5σ. Pure , , , and atmospheres, or a mixed secondary atmosphere () could explain the data (). However, pure atmospheres may be physically unlikely, and the pure and cases require a high-altitude cloud, which could also be interpreted as a thin cloud-free atmosphere. We discuss the theoretical possibility for different types of atmosphere on this planet, and consider the effects of atmospheric escape and stellar activity on the system. Though we find that TOI-1685 b is likely a bare rock, this study also highlights the challenges of detecting secondary atmospheres on rocky planets with JWST.