Planetary Climate Dynamics

Abstract:

Implicit in the definition of the classical circumstellar habitable zone (HZ) is the hypothesis that the carbonate-silicate cycle can maintain clement climates on exoplanets with land and surface water across a range of instellations by adjusting atmospheric CO2 partial pressure (pCO2). This hypothesis is made by analogy to the Earth system, but it is an open question whether silicate weathering can stabilize climate on planets in the outer reaches of the HZ, where instellations are lower than those received by even the Archean Earth and CO2 is thought likely to dominate atmospheres. Since weathering products are carried from land to ocean by the action of water, silicate weathering is intimately coupled to the hydrologic cycle, which intensifies with hotter temperatures under Earth-like conditions. Here, we use global climate model simulations to demonstrate that the hydrologic cycle responds counterintuitively to changes in climate on planets with CO2-H2O atmospheres at low instellations and high pCO2, with global evaporation and precipitation decreasing as pCO2 and temperatures increase at a given instellation. Within the Maher & Chamberlain (or MAC) weathering formulation, weathering then decreases with increasing pCO2 for a range of instellations and pCO2 typical of the outer reaches of the HZ, resulting in an unstable carbon cycle that may lead to either runaway CO2 accumulation or depletion of CO2 to colder (possibly snowball) conditions. While the behavior of the system has not been completely mapped out, the results suggest that silicate weathering could fail to maintain habitable conditions in the outer reaches of the nominal HZ.

Abstract:

LHS 1140 b is the second-closest temperate transiting planet to Earth with an equilibrium temperature low enough to support surface liquid water. At 1.730 ± 0.025 R ⊕, LHS 1140 b falls within the radius valley separating H2-rich mini-Neptunes from rocky super-Earths. Recent mass and radius revisions indicate a bulk density significantly lower than expected for an Earth-like rocky interior, suggesting that LHS 1140 b could be either a mini-Neptune with a small envelope of hydrogen (∼0.1% by mass) or a water world (9%–19% water by mass). Atmospheric characterization through transmission spectroscopy can readily discern between these two scenarios. Here we present two JWST/NIRISS transit observations of LHS 1140 b, one of which captures a serendipitous transit of LHS 1140 c. The combined transmission spectrum of LHS 1140 b shows a telltale spectral signature of unocculted faculae (5.8σ), covering ∼20% of the visible stellar surface. Besides faculae, our spectral retrieval analysis reveals tentative evidence of residual spectral features, best fit by Rayleigh scattering from a N2-dominated atmosphere (2.3σ), irrespective of the consideration of atmospheric hazes. We also show through Global Climate Models (GCMs) that H2-rich atmospheres of various compositions (100×, 300×, 1000× solar metallicity) are ruled out to >10σ. The GCM calculations predict that water clouds form below the transit photosphere, limiting their impact on transmission data. Our observations suggest that LHS 1140 b is either airless or, more likely, surrounded by an atmosphere with a high mean molecular weight. Our tentative evidence of a N2-rich atmosphere provides strong motivation for future transmission spectroscopy observations of LHS 1140 b.