Predictability of weather and climate

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Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: the impact of different spatio-temporal scales

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society 101:S1 (2020) S41-S46

Authors:

Nicholas Leach, S Li, S Sparrow, GJ Van Oldenborgh, FC Lott, A Weisheimer, Allen

Abstract:

We demonstrate that, in attribution studies, events defined over longer time scales generally produce higher probability ratios due to lower interannual variability, reconciling seemingly inconsistent attribution results of Europe’s 2018 summer heatwaves in reported studies.
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Beyond skill scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case study of French month-ahead energy prediction

(2020)

Authors:

Joshua Dorrington, Isla Finney, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer
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The physics of numerical analysis: a climate modelling case study

Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Royal Society 378:2166 (2020) 20190058

Abstract:

The case is made for a much closer synergy between climate science, numerical analysis and computer science. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science'.
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Extreme precipitation events over Saudi Arabia during the wet season and their associated teleconnections

Atmospheric Research Elsevier 231 (2020) 104655

Authors:

Rana Muhammad Atif, Mansour Almazroui, Sajjad Saeed, Muhammad Adnan Abid, M Nazrul Islam, Muhammad Ismail
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Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems in the United Kingdom by 2050

Chapter in Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems, 2020 Report of the FABLE Consortium, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) (2020) 626-655

Authors:

ALISON SMITH, Nicholas LEACH, Paula Harrison, Saher HASNAIN, Charles Godfray, Jim HALL, Michael OBERSTEINER

Abstract:

This chapter of the 2020 Report of the FABLE Consortium Pathways to Sustainable Land-Use and Food Systems outlines how sustainable food and land-use systems can contribute to raising climate ambition, aligning climate mitigation and biodiversity protection policies, and achieving other sustainable development priorities in the UK. It presents three pathways for food and land-use systems for the period 2020-2050: Current Trends, Sustainable Medium Ambition, and Sustainable High Ambition (referred to as “Current Trends”, “Sustainable”, and “Sustainable +” in all figures throughout this chapter). These pathways examine the trade-offs between achieving the FABLE Targets under limited land availability and constraints to balance supply and demand at national and global levels. We developed these pathways in consultation with national stakeholders and experts, including from the Department for Food, Agriculture and Rural Affairs (Defra), the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), the Department for International Trade (DIT), the Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs in Northern Ireland (DAERA), the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government, the Committee on Climate Change, the Royal Society, the Royal Academy of Engineering, and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), and modeled them with the FABLE Calculator (Mosnier, Penescu, Thomson, and Perez-Guzman, 2019). See Annex 1 for more details on the adaptation of the model to the national context.
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