Predictability of weather and climate

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A CERN for climate change

PHYSICS WORLD 24:3 (2011) 14-15
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Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 38 (2011) ARTN L16703

Authors:

Antje Weisheimer, TN Palmer, FJ Doblas-Reyes
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Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 116 (2011) ARTN D19111

Authors:

FJ Doblas-Reyes, MA Balmaseda, A Weisheimer, TN Palmer
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ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature

CLIMATE DYNAMICS 37:3-4 (2011) 455-471

Authors:

Timothy N Stockdale, David LT Anderson, Magdalena A Balmaseda, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Laura Ferranti, Kristian Mogensen, Timothy N Palmer, Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart
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EC-Earth: A seamless Earth-system prediction approach in action

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91:10 (2010) 1357-1363

Authors:

W Hazeleger, C Severijns, T Semmler, S Ştefǎnescu, S Yang, X Wang, K Wyser, E Dutra, JM Baldasano, R Bintanja, P Bougeault, R Caballero, AML Ekman, JH Christensen, B Van Den Hurk, P Jimenez, C Jones, P Kållberg, T Koenigk, R McGrath, P Miranda, T Van Noije, T Palmer, JA Parodi, T Schmith, F Selten, T Storelvmo, A Sterl, H Tapamo, M Vancoppenolle, P Viterbo, U Willén

Abstract:

The EC-Earth consortium is a grouping of meteorologists and Earth-system scientists from 10 European countries, put together to face the challenges of climate and weather forecasting. The NWP system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) forms the basis of the EC-Earth Earth-system model. NWP models are designed to accurately capture short-term atmospheric fluctuations. They are used for forecasts at daily-to-seasonal time scales and include data assimilation capabilities. Climate models are designed to represent the global coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The atmospheric model of EC-Earth version 2, is based on ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), cycle 31R1, corresponding to the current seasonal forecast system of ECMWF. The EC-Earth consortium and ECMWF are collaborating on development of initialization procedures to improve long-term predictions. The EC-Earth model displays good performance from daily up to inter-annual time scales and for long-term mean climate.
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