Simulation-based inference for AGN jet population modelling: Towards more robust comparisons of black hole jet speeds
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1515
Abstract:
Properties of Black Hole Mergers in Disks of Active Galactic Nuclei
The Astrophysical Journal American Astronomical Society 1007:1 (2026) 67
Abstract:
Ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) observatories have detected approximately 200 binary black hole (BH) mergers. The astrophysical origin of these events is debated, with evidence suggesting that at least a subset originated from dynamic environments characterized by frequent close encounters. Accretion disks in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are of particular interest, as certain observed features could be more readily produced within such environments. In this paper, we investigate the expected properties of mergers in these environments, and their dependence on various parameters, using 1D N-body simulations combined with a comprehensive semianalytical model. In our fiducial model, the distributions of masses (m1 and m2) and mass ratios (q ≡ m2/m1 ≤ 1) are similar to those observed. However, they depend strongly on the lifetime and density of the AGN disk and on the number and accretion efficiency of BHs, with higher masses predicted as these quantities increase. The most massive mergers, such as GW231123, can be produced either by efficient gas accretion or by hierarchical mergers among ≥3 generations of BHs. The observed negative correlation between q and the average effective spin (χeff), along with the positive correlation between χeff and the chirp mass (Mchirp), can be explained by a combination of efficient gas accretion, which promotes spin alignment, and hierarchical mergers, which produce high-∣χeff∣ and low-q binaries. Hierarchical mergers can also explain the negative correlation between q and the dispersion of χeff, as well as the positive correlation between ∣χeff∣and Mchirp. We present a comprehensive study on how the expected distribution of each of these quantities depends on model parameters and assumptions, which will aid the interpretation of observed GW population properties.Radio flares and X-ray hardening embedded in the long soft state of 4U 1543–475
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society Oxford University Press (OUP) (2026) stag1470
Abstract:
Abstract We present a comprehensive multi-wavelength study of the black hole X-ray binary 4U 1543–475 during its 2021 outburst, focusing on radio flaring episodes that are commonly interpreted as signatures of episodic jet production and are embedded within states when the X-ray emission was dominated by an accretion disk component. The radio monitoring reveals at least two discrete flares that coincide with periods of enhanced Comptonized X-ray emission. Broadband spectral modelling shows a significant decrease in the reflection-to-disk flux ratio (by a factor of ~3 − 4) during these episodes, consistent with a temporary change in the geometry of the inner accretion flow, although the data do not allow the causal sequence to be firmly established. Optical photometry exhibits variability that broadly tracks the reflection fraction, consistent with changes in the illuminating component. The accompanying spectral hardening indicates that the radio flares were associated with short-lived excursions toward a ”harder” state, departing from the soft state. X-ray timing analysis suggests that the radio flares may be associated with changes in the fractional rms variability; however, no consistent or unified pattern can be firmly established across different events. These results provide a multi-wavelength observational example of radio flaring activity in a black hole binary and highlight the complex interplay between accretion flow geometry, coronal emission, and jet-related phenomena.A Real-Time Jet Laboratory in Swift J1727.8-1613
Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia Cambridge University Press (CUP) (2026) 1-28
Abstract:
Abstract Multi-wavelength observations of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) during bright outbursts reveal many details about the coupling of their inflows and outflows. However, only high angular resolution radio observations are able to resolve and track the motion and variability of individual jet ejecta. We present the results of our intensive VLBI campaign on the black-hole low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) Swift J1727.8-1613 during its 2023-2024 outburst. We observed the repeated quenching and re-establishment of the highly-extended continuous core jet during several transitions between hard-intermediate and soft-intermediate states, and the repeated ejection of transient jets. Using time-dependent visibility model fitting, we tracked the motion of nine discrete jet knots, obtaining some of the most precise measurements of transient jet proper motions and ejection dates in an LMXB. These ejecta were only detectable for a short time with VLBI, and some showed rapid intra-observation flux density variability that was not captured in image reconstructions. For the first time, we use time-dependent visibility modelling to fit a piecewise model for the jet knot flux densities, allowing us to create complex, non-parametric light curves of their intra-observation variability. We observed the launching of multiple ejecta across several state transitions, however, we could not identify a consistent signature of jet ejection in the available X-ray intensity or hardness data. We constrained the intrinsic speeds and bulk Lorentz factors of the jet knots, finding that Swift J1727.8-1613 launched both mildly relativistic (βΓ<1) and highly relativistic (βΓ>2) ejecta throughout its outburst. We used their proper motions to constrain a posterior distribution for the maximum inclination angle of the jet axis, which had 50th, 84th, and 99th percentiles of 40°, 50°, and 66°, respectively. These unique observations of the repeated ejection of transient jets by a single LMXB reveal that fixed parameters such as black-hole mass, black-hole spin, and spin-orbit misalignment do not uniquely determine the varying properties of transient jets, particularly their speeds and Lorentz factors.Quenching of X-ray emission in little red dots by both Compton-thick gas and high accretion rates
Astronomy & Astrophysics EDP Sciences 712 (2026) A61-A61