Dr Scott Osprey FRMetS

Abstract:

We highlight some of the scientific benefits of the Aeolus Doppler Wind Lidar mission since its launch in August 2018. Its scientific objectives are to improve weather forecasts and to advance the understanding of atmospheric dynamics and its interaction with the atmospheric energy and water cycle. A number of meteorological and science institutes across the world are starting to demonstrate that the Aeolus mission objectives are being met. Its wind product is being operationally assimilated by four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centres, thanks to demonstrated useful positive impact on NWP analyses and forecasts. Applications of its atmospheric optical properties product have been found, e.g., in the detection and tracking of smoke from the extreme Australian wildfires of 2020 and in atmospheric composition data assimilation. The winds are finding novel applications in atmospheric dynamics research, such as tropical phenomena (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation disruption events), detection of atmospheric gravity waves, and in the smoke generated vortex associated with the Australian wildfires. It has been applied in the assessment of other types of satellite derived wind information such as atmospheric motions vectors. Aeolus is already successful with hopefully more to come.

Abstract:

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently, it is possible that in the future, the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.

Abstract:

The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the interannual variability of the tropical stratosphere and influences other regions of the atmosphere. The high predictability of the QBO implies that its teleconnections could lead to increased skill of seasonal and decadal forecasts provided the relevant mechanisms are accurately represented in models. Here modelling and sampling uncertainties of QBO teleconnections are examined using a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving atmospheric general circulation models that have carried out a set of coordinated experiments as part of the Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) QBO initiative (QBOi). During Northern Hemisphere winter the stratospheric polar vortex in most of these models strengthens when the QBO near 50 hPa is westerly and weakens when it is easterly, consistent with, but weaker than, the observed response. These weak responses are likely due to model errors, such as systematically weak QBO amplitudes near 50 hPa, affecting the teleconnection. The teleconnection to the North Atlantic Oscillation is less well captured overall, but of similar strength to the observed signal in the few models that do show it. The models do not show clear evidence of a QBO teleconnection to the Northern Hemisphere Pacific‐sector subtropical jet.

Abstract:

Abstract. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex and occur on average approximately 6 times per decade in observation based records. However, within these records, intervals of significantly higher and lower SSW rates are observed suggesting the possibility of low frequency variations in event occurrence. A better understanding of factors that influence this decadal variability may help to improve predictability of NH mid-latitude surface climate, through stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this work, multi-decadal variability of SSW events is examined in a 1000-yr pre-industrial simulation of a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Sea ice model. Using a wavelet spectral decomposition method, we show that hiatus events (intervals of a decade or more with no SSWs) and consecutive SSW events (extended intervals with at least one SSW in each year) vary on multi-decadal timescales of period between 60 and 90 years. Signals on these timescales are present for approximately 450 years of the simulation. We investigate the possible source of these long-term signals and find that the direct impact of variability in tropical sea surface temperatures, as well as the associated Aleutian Low, can account for only a small portion of the SSW variability. Instead, the major influence on long-term SSW variability is associated with long-term variability in amplitude of the stratospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO influence is consistent with the well known Holton-Tan relationship, with SSW hiatus intervals associated with extended periods of particularly strong, deep QBO westerly phases. The results support recent studies that have highlighted the role of vertical coherence in the QBO when considering coupling between the QBO, the polar vortex and tropospheric circulation.