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Dr Scott Osprey FRMetS

Senior NCAS Research Scientist

Research theme

  • Climate physics

Sub department

  • Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics

Research groups

  • Climate dynamics
Scott.Osprey@physics.ox.ac.uk
Telephone: 01865 (2)82434,01865 (2)72923
Atmospheric Physics Clarendon Laboratory, room 111
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
SPARC QBOi
  • About
  • Publications

An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

Science American Association for the Advancement of Science 353:6306 (2016) 1424-1427

Authors:

Scott Osprey, Neal Butchart, Jeff R Knight, Adam A Scaife, Kevin Hamilton, James A Anstey, Verena Schenzinger, Chunxi Zhang

Abstract:

One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind-jets in the equatorial stratosphere (~16-50 km altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, though the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.
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Prospect of increased disruption to the QBO in a changing climate

Geophysical Research Letters Wiley 48:15 (2021) e2021GL093058

Authors:

James A Anstey, Timothy P Banyard, Neal Butchart, Lawrence Coy, Paul A Newman, Scott Osprey, Corwin J Wright

Abstract:

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical stratospheric winds was disrupted during the 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that this latest disruption to the regular QBO cycling was similar in many respects to that seen in 2016, but initiated by horizontal momentum transport from the Southern Hemisphere. The predictable signal associated with the QBO's quasi-regular phase progression is lost during disruptions and the oscillation reemerges after a few months significantly shifted in phase from what would be expected if it had progressed uninterrupted. We infer from an increased wave-momentum flux into equatorial latitudes seen in climate model projections that disruptions to the QBO are likely to become more common in future. Consequently, it is possible that in the future, the QBO could be a less reliable source of predictability on lead times extending out to several years than it currently is.
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The SPARC Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley (2020) qj.3820

Authors:

James A Anstey, Neal Butchart, Kevin Hamilton, Scott M Osprey
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Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Copernicus Publications 22:7 (2022) 4867-4893

Authors:

Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, Bablu Sinha

Abstract:

Variations in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric vortex can influence surface variability in the Atlantic sector. Disruptions of the vortex, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), are associated with an equatorward shift and deceleration of the North Atlantic jet stream, negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and cold snaps over Eurasia and North America. Despite clear influences at the surface on sub-seasonal timescales, how stratospheric vortex variability interacts with ocean circulation on decadal to multi-decadal timescales is less well understood. In this study, we use a 1000 year preindustrial control simulation of the UK Earth System Model to study such interactions, using a wavelet analysis technique to examine non-stationary periodic signals in the vortex and ocean. We find that intervals which exhibit persistent anomalous vortex behaviour lead to oscillatory responses in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The origin of these responses appears to be highly non-stationary, with spectral power in vortex variability at periods of 30 and 50 years. In contrast, AMOC variations on longer timescales (near 90-year periods) are found to lead to a vortex response through a pathway involving the equatorial Pacific and quasi-biennial oscillation. Using the relationship between persistent vortex behaviour and the AMOC response established in the model, we use regression analysis to estimate the potential contribution of the 8-year SSW hiatus interval in the 1990s to the recent negative trend in AMOC observations. The result suggests that approximately 30 % of the trend may have been caused by the SSW hiatus.
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Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics European Geosciences Union 22:7 (2022) 4867-4893

Authors:

Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Lesley Gray, Scott Osprey, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, Bablu Sinha

Abstract:

Variations in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere winter polar stratospheric vortex can influence surface variability in the Atlantic sector. Disruptions of the vortex, known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), are associated with an equatorward shift and deceleration of the North Atlantic jet stream, negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and cold snaps over Eurasia and North America. Despite clear influences at the surface on sub-seasonal timescales, how stratospheric vortex variability interacts with ocean circulation on decadal to multi-decadal timescales is less well understood. In this study, we use a 1000 year preindustrial control simulation of the UK Earth System Model to study such interactions, using a wavelet analysis technique to examine non-stationary periodic signals in the vortex and ocean. We find that intervals which exhibit persistent anomalous vortex behaviour lead to oscillatory responses in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The origin of these responses appears to be highly non-stationary, with spectral power in vortex variability at periods of 30 and 50 years. In contrast, AMOC variations on longer timescales (near 90-year periods) are found to lead to a vortex response through a pathway involving the equatorial Pacific and quasi-biennial oscillation. Using the relationship between persistent vortex behaviour and the AMOC response established in the model, we use regression analysis to estimate the potential contribution of the 8-year SSW hiatus interval in the 1990s to the recent negative trend in AMOC observations. The result suggests that approximately 30 % of the trend may have been caused by the SSW hiatus.
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