Raymond Pierrehumbert FRS

Abstract:

The possibility that the Earth suffered episodes of global glaciation as recently as the Neoproterozoic period, between about 900 and 543 million years ago, has been widely discussed. Termination of such 'hard snowball Earth' climate states has been proposed to proceed from accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Many salient aspects of the snowball scenario depend critically on the threshold of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations needed to trigger deglaciation. Here I present simulations with a general circulation model, using elevated carbon dioxide levels to estimate this deglaciation threshold. The model simulates several phenomena that are expected to be significant in a 'snowball Earth' scenario, but which have not been considered in previous studies with less sophisticated models, such as a reduction of vertical temperature gradients in winter, a reduction in summer tropopause height, the effect of snow cover and a reduction in cloud greenhouse effects. In my simulations, the system remains far short of deglaciation even at atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 550 times the present levels (0.2 bar of CO2). I find that at much higher carbon dioxide levels, deglaciation is unlikely unless unknown feedback cycles that are not captured in the model come into effect.

Abstract:

Hydrothermal plumes may be responsible for transmitting radiogenic or tidally generated heat from Europa's rocky interior through a liquid ocean to the base of its ice shell. This process has been implicated in the formation of chaos regions and lenticulae by melting or exciting convection in the ice layer. In contrast to earlier work, we argue that Europa's ocean should be treated as an unstratified fluid. We have adapted and expanded upon existing work describing buoyant plumes in a rotating, unstratified environment. We discuss the scaling laws governing the flow and geometry of plumes on Europa and perform a laboratory experiment to obtain scaling constants and to visualize plume behavior in a Europa‐like parameter regime. We predict that hydrothermal plumes on Europa are of a lateral scale (at least 25–50 km) comparable to large chaos regions; they are too broad to be responsible for the formation of individual lenticulae. Plume heat fluxes (0.1–10 W/m2) are too weak to allow complete melt‐through of the ice layer. Current speeds in the plume (3–8 mm/s) are much slower than indicated by previous studies. The observed movement of ice blocks in the Conamara Chaos region is unlikely to be driven by such weak flow.

Abstract:

Simulations of frigid Neoproterozoic climates have not considered the tendency of thick layers of floating marine ice to deform and spread laterally. We have constructed a simple model of the production and flow of marine ice on a planetary scale, and determined ice thickness and flow in two situations: when the ocean is globally ice‐covered (“hard snowball”) and when the tropical waters remain open (“soft snowball”). In both cases, ice flow strongly affects the distribution of marine ice. Flowing ice probably carries enough latent heat and freshwater to significantly affect the transition into a Snowball Earth climate. We speculate that flowing marine ice, rather than continental ice sheets, may be the erosive agent that created some Neoproterozoic glacial deposits.