Making sense of uncertainties: Ask the right question
Geostationary aerosol retrievals of extreme biomass burning plumes during the 2019–2020 Australian bushfires
Abstract:
Extreme biomass burning (BB) events, such as those seen during the 2019-2020 Australian bushfire season, are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. Ground-based observations of these events can provide useful information on the macro-and micro-physical properties of the plumes, but these observations are sparse, especially in regions which are at risk of intense bushfire events. Satellite observations of extreme BB events provide a unique perspective, with the newest generation of geostationary imagers, such as the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), observing entire continents at moderate spatial and high temporal resolution. However, current passive satellite retrieval methods struggle to capture the high values of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) seen during these BB events. Accurate retrievals are necessary for global and regional studies of shortwave radiation, air quality modelling and numerical weather prediction. To address these issues, the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm has used AHI data to measure extreme BB plumes from the 2019-2020 Australian bushfire season. The sensitivity of the retrieval to the assumed optical properties of BB plumes is explored by comparing retrieved AOT with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level-1.5 data over the AERONET site at Tumbarumba, New South Wales, between 1 December 2019 at 00:00UTC and 3 January 2020 at 00:00UTC. The study shows that for AOT values >2, the sensitivity to the assumed optical properties is substantial. The ORAC retrievals and AERONET data are compared against the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Aerosol Retrieval Product (ARP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue over land, MODIS MAIAC, Sentinel-3 SYN and VIIRS Deep Blue products. The comparison shows the ORAC retrieval significantly improves coverage of optically thick plumes relative to the JAXA ARP, with approximately twice as many pixels retrieved and peak retrieved AOT values 1.4 times higher than the JAXA ARP. The ORAC retrievals have accuracy scores of 0.742-0.744 compared to the values of 0.718-0.833 for the polar-orbiting satellite products, despite successfully retrieving approximately 28 times as many pixels over the study period as the most successful polar-orbiting satellite product. The AHI and MODIS satellite products are compared for three case studies covering a range of BB plumes over Australia. The results show good agreement between all products for plumes with AOT values ≤2. For extreme BB plumes, the ORAC retrieval finds values of AOT >15, significantly higher than those seen in events classified as extreme by previous studies, although with high uncertainty. A combination of hard limits in the retrieval algorithms and misclassification of BB plumes as cloud prevents the JAXA and MODIS products from returning AOT values significantly greater than 5.Characterization of dust aerosols from ALADIN and CALIOP measurements
Abstract:
Atmospheric aerosols have pronounced effects on climate at both regional and global scales, but the magnitude of these effects is subject to considerable uncertainties. A major contributor to these uncertainties is an incomplete understanding of the vertical structure of aerosol, largely due to observational limitations. Spaceborne lidars can directly observe the vertical distribution of aerosols globally and are increasingly used in atmospheric aerosol remote sensing. As the first spaceborne high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL), the Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN) on board the Aeolus satellite was operational from 2018 to 2023. ALADIN data can be used to estimate aerosol extinction and co-polar backscatter coefficients separately without an assumption of the lidar ratio. This study assesses the performance of ALADIN's aerosol retrieval capabilities by comparing them with Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements. A statistical analysis of retrievals from both instruments during the June 2020 Saharan dust event indicates consistency between the observed backscatter and extinction coefficients. During this extreme dust event, CALIOP-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) exhibited large discrepancies with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua measurements. Using collocated ALADIN observations to revise the dust lidar ratio to 63.5 sr, AODs retrieved from CALIOP are increased by 46 %, improving the comparison with MODIS data. The combination of measurements from ALADIN and CALIOP can enhance the tracking of aerosols' vertical transport. This study demonstrates the potential for spaceborne HSRL to retrieve aerosol optical properties. It highlights the benefits of spaceborne HSRL in directly obtaining the lidar ratio, significantly reducing uncertainties in extinction retrievals.Characterization of dust aerosols from ALADIN and CALIOP measurements
Abstract:
Atmospheric aerosols have pronounced effects on climate at both regional and global scales, but the magnitude of these effects is subject to considerable uncertainties. A major contributor to these uncertainties is an incomplete understanding of the vertical structure of aerosol, largely due to observational limitations. Spaceborne lidars can directly observe the vertical distribution of aerosols globally and are increasingly used in atmospheric aerosol remote sensing. As the first spaceborne high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL), the Atmospheric LAser Doppler INstrument (ALADIN) on board the Aeolus satellite was operational from 2018 to 2023. ALADIN data can be used to estimate aerosol extinction and co-polar backscatter coefficients separately without an assumption of the lidar ratio. This study assesses the performance of ALADIN's aerosol retrieval capabilities by comparing them with Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements. A statistical analysis of retrievals from both instruments during the June 2020 Saharan dust event indicates consistency between the observed backscatter and extinction coefficients. During this extreme dust event, CALIOP-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) exhibited large discrepancies with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua measurements. Using collocated ALADIN observations to revise the dust lidar ratio to 63.5sr, AODs retrieved from CALIOP are increased by 46%, improving the comparison with MODIS data. The combination of measurements from ALADIN and CALIOP can enhance the tracking of aerosols' vertical transport. This study demonstrates the potential for spaceborne HSRL to retrieve aerosol optical properties. It highlights the benefits of spaceborne HSRL in directly obtaining the lidar ratio, significantly reducing uncertainties in extinction retrievals.Uncertainty in aerosol–cloud radiative forcing is driven by clean conditions
Abstract:
Atmospheric aerosols and their impact on cloud properties remain the largest uncertainty in the human forcing of the climate system. By increasing the concentration of cloud droplets (Nd), aerosols reduce droplet size and increase the reflectivity of clouds (a negative radiative forcing). Central to this climate impact is the susceptibility of cloud droplet number to aerosol (β), the diversity of which explains much of the variation in the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci) in global climate models. This has made measuring β a key target for developing observational constraints of the aerosol forcing.
While the aerosol burden of the clean, pre-industrial atmosphere has been demonstrated as a key uncertainty for the aerosol forcing, here we show that the behaviour of clouds under these clean conditions is of equal importance for understanding the spread in radiative forcing estimates between models and observations. This means that the uncertainty in the aerosol impact on clouds is, counterintuitively, driven by situations with little aerosol. Discarding clean conditions produces a close agreement between different model and observational estimates of the cloud response to aerosol but does not provide a strong constraint on the RFaci. This makes constraining aerosol behaviour in clean conditions an important goal for future observational studies.