Climate dynamics

Abstract:

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is one of the most cyclic phenomena in the atmosphere except for the annular and diurnal cycles, which provide the predictability source for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts on the globe. The QBO is generated by the interaction between the background circulation and the equatorial waves, which cover a wide spectrum consisting of those that are eastward- and westward-propagating. The QBO can affect the climate in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres through at least three dynamic pathways, including the stratospheric polar vortex pathway, the subtropical downward-arching zonal wind pathway, and the tropical convection pathway. The impact of the QBO on the extratropics is projected to strengthen in future scenario experiments, although the maximum QBO wind magnitude gradually decreased in recent decades. As a newly emerging feature, the QBO disruption during the westerly phase is mainly caused by the extremely active Rossby waves from the extratropics. The QBO disruptions are likely to increase in a warmer climate background.

Abstract:

Many super‐Earths are on very short orbits around their host star and, therefore, more likely to be tidally locked. Because this locking can lead to a strong contrast between the dayside and nightside surface temperatures, these super‐Earths could exhibit mantle convection patterns and tectonics that could differ significantly from those observed in the present‐day solar system. The presence of an atmosphere, however, would allow transport of heat from the dayside toward the nightside and thereby reduce the surface temperature contrast between the two hemispheres. On rocky planets, atmospheric and geodynamic regimes are closely linked, which directly connects the question of atmospheric thickness to the potential interior dynamics of the planet. Here, we study the interior dynamics of super‐Earth GJ 486b ( R = 1.34 $R=1.34$ R ⊕ ${R}_{\oplus }$ , M = 3.0 $M=3.0$ M ⊕ ${M}_{\oplus }$ , T eq ≈ 700 ${\mathrm{T}}_{\text{eq}}\approx 700$ K), which is one of the most suitable M‐dwarf super‐Earth candidates for retaining an atmosphere produced by degassing from the mantle and magma ocean. We investigate how the geodynamic regime of GJ 486b is influenced by different surface temperature contrasts by varying possible atmospheric circulation regimes. We also investigate how the strength of the lithosphere affects the convection pattern. We find that hemispheric tectonics, the surface expression of degree‐1 convection with downwellings forming on one hemisphere and upwelling material rising on the opposite hemisphere, is a consequence of the strong lithosphere rather than surface temperature contrast. Anchored hemispheric tectonics, where downwellings und upwellings have a preferred (day/night) hemisphere, is favored for strong temperature contrasts between the dayside and nightside and higher surface temperatures.

Abstract:

Latent heating modifies the jet stream by modifying the vertical geostrophic wind shear, thereby altering the potential for baroclinic development. Hence, correctly representing diabatic effects is important for modelling the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation and variability. However, the direct effects of diabatic heating remain poorly understood. For example, there is no consensus on the effect of latent heating on the cross-jet temperature contrast. We show that this disagreement is attributable to the choice of spatio-temporal averaging. Jet representations relying on averaged wind tend to have the strongest latent heating on the cold flank of the jet, thus weakening the cross-jet temperature contrast. In contrast, jet representations reflecting the two-dimensional instantaneous wind field have the strongest latent heating on the warm flank of the jet. Furthermore, we show that latent heating primarily occurs on the warm flank of poleward directed instantaneous jets, which is the case for all storm tracks and seasons.

Abstract:

An ocean memory framework is proposed to reveal the atmosphere's influence on ocean temperatures. Anomalous atmospheric forcing alters the ocean state through two mechanisms: short‐term, local effects involving air − ${-}$ sea heat fluxes and Ekman circulation, and long‐term, far‐field effects involving changes from overturning and gyre circulations. The framework employs the Green function's method to incorporate both effects, enabling the quantification of ocean memory and the contribution of atmospheric forcing to ocean thermal variability. The framework is employed to examine the North Atlantic Oscillation's (NAO) influence on the North Atlantic Ocean variability, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with its memory estimated to be 10 – 20 $10\mbox{--}20$ years. The NAO and variability in the North Atlantic jet speed explain up to 30% of ocean decadal variability, primarily driven by temporal changes in ocean heat transport. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in ocean temperatures cannot be accurately modeled solely as a passive response to stochastic atmospheric forcing.

Abstract:

The projected winter changes of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) under climate change conditions have been extensively analysed. Previous studies have reported a squeezed and elongated EDJ. However, other changes present large uncertainties, specifically those related to the intensity and latitude. Here, the projections of the EDJ in a multimodel ensemble of CMIP6 are scrutinised by using a multiparametric description of the EDJ. The multimodel mean projects non-stationary responses of the EDJ latitude through the winter, characterised by a poleward shift in early winter and equator migration in late winter. These intraseasonal shifts (rather than a genuine narrowing) explain the previously established squeezing of the EDJ and are linked to the future changes in different drivers: the 200 hPa meridional temperature gradient and Atlantic warming hole in early winter, and the stratospheric vortex in late winter. Model biases also influence EDJ projections, contributing to the poleward shift in early winter.