Climate dynamics

Abstract:

We highlight some of the scientific benefits of the Aeolus Doppler Wind Lidar mission since its launch in August 2018. Its scientific objectives are to improve weather forecasts and to advance the understanding of atmospheric dynamics and its interaction with the atmospheric energy and water cycle. A number of meteorological and science institutes across the world are starting to demonstrate that the Aeolus mission objectives are being met. Its wind product is being operationally assimilated by four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centres, thanks to demonstrated useful positive impact on NWP analyses and forecasts. Applications of its atmospheric optical properties product have been found, e.g., in the detection and tracking of smoke from the extreme Australian wildfires of 2020 and in atmospheric composition data assimilation. The winds are finding novel applications in atmospheric dynamics research, such as tropical phenomena (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation disruption events), detection of atmospheric gravity waves, and in the smoke generated vortex associated with the Australian wildfires. It has been applied in the assessment of other types of satellite derived wind information such as atmospheric motions vectors. Aeolus is already successful with hopefully more to come.

Abstract:

Central stages in the evolution of rocky, potentially habitable planets may play out under atmospheric conditions with a large inventory of nondilute condensable components. Variations in condensate retention and accompanying changes in local lapse rate may substantially affect planetary climate and surface conditions, but there is currently no general theory to effectively describe such atmospheres. In this article, expanding on the work by Li et al., we generalize the single-component moist pseudoadiabat derivation in Pierrehumbert to allow for multiple condensing components of arbitrary diluteness and retained condensate fraction. The introduction of a freely tunable retained condensate fraction allows for a flexible, self-consistent treatment of atmospheres with nondilute condensable components. To test the pseudoadiabat's capabilities for simulating a diverse range of climates, we apply the formula to planetary atmospheres with compositions, surface pressures, and temperatures representing important stages with condensable-rich atmospheres in the evolution of terrestrial planets: a magma ocean planet in a runaway greenhouse state; a post-impact, late-veneer-analog planet with a complex atmospheric composition; and an Archean Earth-like planet near the outer edge of the classical circumstellar habitable zone. We find that variations in the retention of multiple nondilute condensable species can significantly affect the lapse rate and in turn outgoing radiation and the spectral signatures of planetary atmospheres. The presented formulation allows for a more comprehensive treatment of the climate evolution of rocky exoplanets and early Earth analogs.

Abstract:

Theory and model evidence indicate a higher global hydrological sensitivity for the same amount of surface warming to solar as to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, but regional patterns are highly uncertain due to their dependence on circulation and dynamics. We analyse a multi-model ensemble of idealized experiments and a set of simulations of the last millennium and we demonstrate similar global signatures and patterns of forced response in the tropical Pacific, of higher sensitivity for the solar forcing. In the idealized simulations, both solar and GHG forcing warm the equatorial Pacific, enhance precipitation in the central Pacific, and weaken and shift the Walker circulation eastward. Centennial variations in the solar forcing over the last millennium cause similar patterns of enhanced equatorial precipitation and slowdown of the Walker circulation in response to periods with stronger solar forcing. Similar forced patterns albeit of considerably weaker magnitude are identified for variations in GHG concentrations over the 20th century, with the lower sensitivity explained by fast atmospheric adjustments. These findings differ from previous studies that have typically suggested divergent responses in tropical precipitation and circulation between the solar and GHG forcings. We conclude that tropical Walker circulation and precipitation might be more susceptible to solar variability rather than GHG variations during the last-millennium, assuming comparable global mean surface temperature changes.

Abstract:

Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining change on regional scales under global warming. In the extratropics, large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of observed regional climate variability, from seasonal to multidecadal timescales. However, the extratropical circulation variability on multidecadal timescales is systematically weaker in coupled climate models. Here we show that projections of future extratropical climate from coupled model simulations significantly underestimate the projected uncertainty range originating from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. Using observational datasets and large ensembles of coupled climate models, we produce synthetic ensemble projections constrained to have variability consistent with the large-scale atmospheric circulation in observations. Compared to the raw model projections, the synthetic observationally-constrained projections exhibit an increased uncertainty in projected 21st century temperature and precipitation changes across much of the Northern extratropics. This increased uncertainty is also associated with an increase of the projected occurrence of future extreme seasons.

Abstract:

Blocks are high-impact atmospheric systems of the mid-/high latitudes and have been widely addressed in meteorological and climatological studies. However, the diversity of blocking definitions makes comparison across studies not straightforward. Here, we propose a conceptual model for the life cycle of high pressure systems that recognizes the multifaceted and transient characteristics of these events. A detection scheme identifies and classifies daily structures, discriminating between subtropical ridges and different types of well-established blocking patterns (omega and dipole-like Rex). This is complemented by a spatiotemporal tracking algorithm, which accounts for transitions between patterns, providing a global catalog of events for 1950–2020. Criteria rely on simple metrics retrieved from one single-level field, and allow implementation in different datasets and climatic realms. Using reanalysis data, we provide illustrative examples, the first global and seasonal climatological assessment of the diversity of high pressure events, their associated impacts, and recent frequency changes. Results reveal that ridge and blocking events affect widespread regions from the subtropics to high latitudes. We find remarkably distinct regional impacts among the considered types, which had been hindered in previous studies by restricted focus on Rex-like structures. This plethora of high pressure systems is much less evident in the Southern Hemisphere, where activity is dominated by subtropical ridges and secluded blocking-like patterns. We report increasing frequencies of low-latitude systems, although with hemispheric and seasonal differences that can only be partially interpreted as a consequence of subtropical expansion. Blocking frequency trends exhibit more heterogeneous and complex spatial patterns, with no evidence of generalized significant changes.